Mariano Rivera To Make History

Its been merely a formality for quite a while now, although its a formality that I as well as many of those that like to nay say the Yankees solely for the fact that they are the Yankees would hold the Yanks closer too. When people would say Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer in baseball history I would say, "Yeah, well Trevor Hoffman is the all-time saves leader." And truthfully, Hoffman was a fantastic closer in his own right, locking down 601 games over the course of 18 seasons. Everything is about to change though. Hoffman is no longer going to be the all-time saves leader. Barring a major catastrophe sometime in the next few days Mariano Rivera will take that title. In fact, Rivera tied Hoffman this afternoon with his 601st save coming in Toronto as the Yanks beat the Blue Jays 7-6. At this point, its a foregone conclusion, much like it practically is every time Rivera steps out of the bullpen and takes the might out of the opposing teams bats.

Now, I'm not, nor will I ever be a Yankees fan. Its not that I hate them, I just don't care for them, at all. I'd rather see the Rays do well to be honest, they're a team with limited resources fighting the big bad giants that are the Yankees (and Red Sox). With all of that said, I have to tip my cap to Rivera. At 41 years old, Rivera is in his 17th season, he's recorded 41 of his 46 saves opportunities and has a fantastic 2.05 ERA. Most remarkably, he's has a WHIP of 0.93 (in 6 of his last 7 seasons his WHIP has been below 1). Clearly, at 41, Rivera is still on top of his game.

And he's had a fantastic career. Rivera was part of the Yankees 90s teams that won 4 World Series Titles and was still with the team for the 2009 title. As a matter of fact, Rivera does some of his best work in the postseason. He has a 0.71 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in October, and has only blown 3 saves (all in 2004) in 45 opportunities. Also, he's only allowed 2 homers in 139 2/3 postseason innings pitched. That's absolutely remarkable.

The craziest thing of all though, is that Rivera has done all of this with for the most part just one pitch. Rivera throws his cut fastball about 85% of the time, according to fangraphs.com (an awesome baseball source, by the way). Its the only pitch he's thrown all 2011 season in a 2-0 count, usually a count where the batter can expect a straight fastball in a good spot to hit. The pitcher's trying to ensure a strike in that scenario. The thing with Rivera is that sure strike is just as nasty as when he's ahead in the count. He has no fear. And here's the thing, the whole baseball world knows that's what he's going to throw. Even with that, they still can't hit it, to the tune of those numbers I stated earlier. I don't know if anyone at any level anywhere has ever mastered a pitch to that level. Just by switching sides of the plate and adding and subtracting speed, Rivera has been the most dominant closer to this point.

Further, at 6 foot 2 and 185 pounds, there's hardly any cloud of suspicion over whether or not Rivera is a product of the steroid era his career began in; the same steroid era of his once-superstar peer Roger Clemens took advantage of. For all intents and purposes, our knowledge is that Rivera has been clean. Yes, he's sustained himself at 41 years old, but all accounts are that he's a very regimented man. A man that takes superior care of his body, and with the lack of a breaking pitch, doesn't have the wear on his arm that comes with snapping the wrist. For all we can see he is also a man of integrity.

And yes, the history of the closer is a short one in relation to the history of the MLB, but even with that said, Rivera is astonishing. He is the face of the closer's role. Toronto Manager and pitching extraordinaire John Farrell said as much in his interview post-game. He's everything you would want in a closer. He's cold-blooded and calculating. He senses the moment and takes the hope from the opposing team just when he needs to. This is the first time I'm willing to say it, but Rivera's the best. Its the truth. No one's ever done it like him, and he's easily destined for Cooperstown.

What's the baseline?
I commend Mariano Rivera for what he is. The best closer in Major League Baseball history. He is the ultimate closer.

(photo courtesy of nydailynews.com)

No Sympathy for Owners in NBA Lockout

With as much pomp and circumstance as the NFL lockout was given (as it was denoted on this blog) its seems like not nearly as many people are mentioning the work stoppage in the NBA that is more than likely going to at least cause a delay to the NBA season. First, I'm sure there are a number of reasons for that. Football is the most beloved sport of the American masses right now, and the idea of the NFL missing games when the sport is so popular and there isn't a recent history of bad blood between the two sides in a Collective Bargaining Agreement probably led to the mass medias reaction of saturating the news feeds. On the side of the NBA though, we have something a lot more sinister, something that really should have people taking notice and have them seriously upset, but the problem is it isn't being reported because fans already consider it a foregone conclusion. The NBA isn't going to be playing for a long time. We're going to miss the start of the season for sure, probably through the New Year, possibly through the All-Star Games' time frame, and I certainly wouldn't rule out the whole season being called off.

With a season where the Commissioner got his golden wish and got a beloved dream team that was the Miami (Super) Heat; when television revenues were through the roof and people had the NBA on the tip of their tongues for most of the winter and into the spring and summer months, somehow, someway the NBA lost money. Now it is true that it is very easy to manipulate numbers and promise that an organization or a group of them, or even a whole league is losing money and have it not be entirely true, and I certainly wouldn't put it past the likes of a shrewd businessman like David Stern to do something like that. There's something different about this case though. I really do think that the NBA is, if not broke, at least losing money.

Now when the NFL lockout was going on I made a post that provided support of the owners (as well as the players), if only because players pass from community to community on the regular whereas an organization more than likely will be linked to a community for a long time, and the welfare of that organization means something to the welfare of that community. This time is different though. Its different because the NBA and the NBA's owners did this to themselves.

For instance, take the most visible of the issues between the players and the owners, this being the desire by the owners for a hard salary cap. For those that don't know, under the old system organizations could go over on their roster payroll with the caveat of if they were resigning a player that had been on the team (new additions had to fit under the cap) as well as having to pay a luxury tax in this instance. This led to the likes of Joe Johnson (in Atlanta) and Rudy Gay (in Memphis) getting max contracts among others. Now don't get me wrong, Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay are very good, even at times great basketball players, but they are not max contract worthy. You could even argue Rudy Gay isn't the best player on his team (Zach Randolph?), and he's getting a max deal? There's no way that should happen. Why does it happen though? The same reason why ticket prices go up for sporting events continuously, because the consumer lets it happen. The owners shell out the money (just like fans do on tickets and merchandise). The thought was that if Memphis wouldn't give a max deal to Gay, then someone else would, so they were forced to give him the cash. The owners then are their own worst enemy because they are willing to recklessly spend to the point that they can't sustain themselves.

The owners made their own bed this time, and now that they're hurting they want to fix the problem by taking the money away from the players, which is understandable yet unfair to those players that don't deserve the punishment for the owners' mismanagement. No one held a gun to Michael Heisley's (Memphis's owner) head and told him to spend $16 million a year on Rudy Gay. He could have recognized the hole he was creating for himself and moved on. Either way would have created consequences. Not signing Gay makes the team a lot less talented and profitable, they probably don't have their surprising playoff run if they don't have Gay to help them get their in the regular season, but isn't there a reason why Heisley hires a staff? Don't they get paid their money to find solutions on basketball problems like how to learn to win under a budget? Instead Memphis took the easy way out and just paid Gay, and they suffered for it later.

And I don't mean to make the Memphis Grizzlies my whipping boy, they are just the most readily available example to me of the mismanagement that got the NBA in this mess. Its just a shame how the owners mess things up and then count on selling short the players in the new CBA and the fans with a lack of a season in order to rectify the mistakes they brought on themselves. And really, I'm afraid I'm just scratching the surface.

What's the baseline?
The owners did this one to themselves. I hope the NBA Players' Union is in this for the long haul. If we're going to miss out on a season as fans, the chips should at least fall in favor of the right people. Of course though, they probably won't.

NFL Preview: Playoffs & Awards

Yes, today has been the first week of the NFL season and much of the action is over. With that said, this is my NFL preview, the playoff version. I have not factored in any of what I saw today as my statements were decided before today. I will be looking over the playoff situation I created with my first two previews, and then also some end of year award predictions. But first, its on to the playoffs

AFC Wildcard Playoffs
Oakland @ New England
Synopsis: An interesting game that seems to resemble last year's first round between Kansas City and Baltimore. I don't think it is though. Oakland's defense gives their all and Jason Campbell and his young receivers link up against what is still a weak link in New England's pass defense. In a very close one, I actually go with the Raiders.
Oakland

Houston @ Indianapolis
I have Indy winning the tiebreaker between these 2 AFC South teams at 11-5 and getting homefield. That homefield, and playoff experience will go a long way as Peyton Manning (assuming his health, of course) tears apart the Houston defense in a shootout. In a game where I'm sure Houston can match them score for score, I have to go with the calm resolve of a Colts offense that's been there before.
Indianapolis.

NFC Wildcard Playoffs
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Two NFC South teams match up for a third time in what should be a fantastic game. Unfortunately for the Saints, I like the improvements Atlanta continues to make year to year. The Saints will not be able to stop the balanced offensive attack of the Falcons. Further, I expect the likes of John Abraham to be in the face of Drew Brees all day long. Another close game, but I like Atlanta to win, as the Saints struggle in the first round again.
Atlanta.

Philadelphia @ Arizona
Arizona plays at home despite having the worse record of the two teams. The Cardinals are running into a bad matchup, they're set up to operate out of the pass, the Eagles are set up to shut it down. The x factor in this game though is Mike Vick and his penchant to turn the ball over against a defense that creates those turnovers. In the end, Vick's performance will tell the tale assuming that Arizona can stay in the game. With that said, I trust Michael Vick at this point to get it done, and I even more trust Andy Reid to prepare him to succeed.
Philadelphia.

AFC Divisional Playoffs
Oakland @ Jets
Oakland takes on 13-3 New York as they are the best seed in the AFC. The Jets will take full advantage of a spent Oakland team who used up too much in defeating New England to have much of a chance here. The Jets ability to run and wear down Oakland's defense is the biggest undoing. I'd also expect the Jets vaunted defense to give Jason Campbell fits. The Jets get ahead early and the Raiders can't resort to Darren McFadden.
Jets.

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
A classic AFC playoff game in the elements in Pittsburgh, and the elements will play a factor. Peyton Manning struggles again in the bad weather late in the year and the Colts have no answer for Rashard Mendenhall and the Steelers running game. The Colts meet a team just as experienced as they are and don't have another option to go to.
Steelers.

NFC Divisional Playoffs
Atlanta @ Chicago
I actually went back and forth on this game and I think it could be a classic. Due to their balance I think the Atlanta offense has a chance against the Chicago defense. With that said there's nothing extra special about Atlanta's defense to say Chicago won't be able to move the ball either. I come up with two keys though. One is Jay Cutler protecting the ball, which I think he will with confidence and health. The other is Devin Hester. Hester's the most dynamic player in this matchup, and as long as Cutler doesn't take them out of the game, I think he makes all the difference.
Chicago.

Philadelphia @ Giants
NFC East rivals face off in this matchup. A lot of this game comes down to how much the Giants commit to the run. If they do then they have the opportunity to attack the weak underbelly of the Eagles defense. On the other hand, the Eagles have the potential to score a lot of points as well. If its close though, and I suspect it will be, I don't trust Eli Manning enough to move the ball against the Eagles defensive backs and pass rush. Mike Vick and DeSean Jackson take advantage and take over the game late.
Philadelphia.

AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh @ Jets
A rematch of last year's game, but this time its in New York. The Steelers appear to me to be an overall better team. A lot of people will point to Mark Sanchez as the key to this game and how he needs to come up big. I think he's done enough though in the past to warrant confidence in his play in this big game. Rather, the Steelers ability to run the ball and control the game will be huge. If the Steelers run the ball well, just like they did last year in this game, then they will win. The Steelers offensive line has improved, meaning they'll be even better fit to run. I think Pittsburgh controls the pace.
Pittsburgh.

NFC Championship Game
Philadelphia @ Chicago
I find this to be an interesting matchup as well. Once again, I think we are seeing a game where the team that doesn't make the critical turnover is going to win. Also, I find the offenses to be philosophically similar. With that said, I'm going with the stronger overall defense and the defense I trust to keep their composure more in big games. Chicago is that better overall defense, they have the know-how and the talent at all 3 levels to stop the Eagles. I think they control the line of scrimmage and really make things hard on Michael Vick.
Chicago.

Super Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
The big game comes down to Pittsburgh and Chicago. Its a game of strong defenses and one offense that can turn the tide of the game. That offense is Pittsburgh's. The Steelers are more steady than Chicago and more multi-faceted. The Bears turnover woes finally catch up to them against players like Troy Polamalu. Matt Forte is rendered ineffective by the Steelers front seven. In a playoffs of close games, I actually think this one is a bit of a laugher as the Steelers cruise to victory.
Steelers are Super Bowl Champions.

Awards
Most Valuable Player: Drew Brees
Brees leads an offense with only one major weapon on it, but with a lot of solid contributors. Its his year to cash in with an MVP, spraying the ball around to his receivers, particularly with a questionable running back situation. Brees leads the Saints to 13-3 highlighting the strength of their team, the pass offense.

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees- Saints
Already talked about it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis- Jets
Revis is already arguably the best corner in the league, and with Asomougha getting the help he now has in Philadelphia I think public favor goes to Revis. He's a ballhawk and I expect him to shut down the likes of Chad Ochocinco, Stevie Johnson, and Brandon Marshall amongst others. Revis makes the biggest impact of any defensive player in the league as Rex Ryan finds ways to get him to be more dynamic even when teams try not to throw near him.

Coach of the Year: Ken Whisenhunt- Cardinals
Whisenhunt gets the honors over Gary Kubiak in Houston and Hue Jackson in Oakland with his 11-5 record and outright victory of the NFC West. Further, the Cardinals go from a dismal 5-11 and looking hopeless to playing in the playoffs. Whisenhunt molds Kevin Kolb into his offense and gets their defense back to what it does best as well. Honors to the Arizona coach.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: AJ Green- Bengals
AJ Green grows up at the WR position with fellow rookie QB Andy Dalton helping him through the way. Green is the first option for Dalton and should get a lot of targets for that reason. He's big, fast, and has great hands. He's already their number 1 receiver and should get a lot of attention in the redzone and the play action passing game as Cedric Benson does his work in the run game. I like Green to have a solid rookie season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: JJ Watt- Texans
JJ Watt has the opportunity to have a big season and help mold the future Texans defense. He provides a lot of solid tackling ability and even pressure along with Mario Williams on what should be an improving defense. Watt is starting from day one and should be able to attack against a couple weak offenses in his division and have a big season with sacks and tackles.

Comeback Player of the Year: Plaxico Burress- Jets
I'll be honest, I'm trying to catch lightning in a bottle twice by guessing someone with a similar storyline to Michael Vick. Burress has the opportunity to play though and be a big target for the emerging Mark Sanchez. They don't have a blow away number 1 receiver, but Burress can command a lot of footballs and a lot of attention. I expect him to be athletic and make plays for touchdowns and down the field.

What's the baseline?
I name the Steelers as the Super Bowl Champs.

NFL Preview: NFC

The start of the NFL season is tonight as two NFC teams face off in the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints. As you probably already know, these two teams are also the last two Super Bowl winners. Do they have what it takes to return to the Super Bowl through the 2011 season? Well the following is my take on where they land through Week 17 as my NFL preview continues.

NFC North
1. Chicago Bears
Projected Record: 14-2
Synopsis: I have the Bears as the regular season darlings of the NFL with the best record in either conference. Continuity is a major factor in this decision as QB Jay Cutler gets increasingly comfortable in an offense that can be tailored to him and star RB Matt Forte. Further, I think people have overblown the lack of talent they have at the WR position, even if Greg Olsen is no longer there to catch passes as well. The defense is just as strong as last year. If the Bears stay healthy they have the talent to pull off the 14-2 record that I state.

2. Green Bay Packers
Projected Record: 10-6
Synopsis: Yes, the Packers are fully healthy now, and you would think that would propel them forward, but what we saw at the end of the last season was a team get hot at the right time. This is a team with potential offensive line issues, and potential durability issues at the RB position. I do like the Packers, but I don't expect them to come out like gangbusters. Also, someone outside of Greg Jennings is going to have to step up and take a major role at WR, especially with Donald Driver aging.

3. Detroit Lions
Projected Record: 7-9
Synopsis: I went back and forth on the Lions a lot, but they land at 7-9. This is indeed a team on the rise, and I fully expect them to compete for a playoff spot in 2012, they might even be in the picture deep into 2011. Health is a huge issue for the Lions. Matthew Stafford and Javhid Best both have to stay healthy, if only so that we can see what the Lions truly have on offense. A lot has been made of the Lions front 4, and it is indeed very formidable, but I have issues with everything that is behind those 4. If the pass rushers don't get there, I expect the Lions to get burned. A quality offensive line will handle them.

4. Minnesota Vikings
Projected Record: 5-11
Synopsis: The Vikings have the opportunity to have a quality offense. Donovan McNabb can bring stability to the QB position, if only for a brief time until the reigns get handed over to Christian Ponder. They have the weapons with Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin as well, and let's hope for a bounce-back year from Bernard Berrian. The issue with the Vikings is the middle of the defense, and that can be a serious problem. Expect teams to be able to run on them, particularly up the middle. The Vikes will rush the passer, particularly with Jared Allen, but with weaknesses at DT and a lack of depth at linebacker, the Vikings defense will struggle.

NFC East
1. New York Giants
Projected Record: 13-3
Synopsis: I don't care what anyone says, the Giants were a playoff team last year (much more worthy than the Seahawks at least). Their offense is strong, but to be as successful as I suspect they have to refind their identity as a run first team. I think they will, and with the passing weapons included Eli Manning is fixing for a big season with less turnovers. The Giants do already have injuries on their defense, but I feel those are offset by their great depth on that side of the ball. Guys like Jason Pierre-Paul and Aaron Ross are more than capable to step in for the meantime and compete at a high level. I also expect a return to form for LB Mathias Kiwanuka.

2. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Record: 12-4
Synopsis: The Eagles lose an epic battle for the NFC East Title, but still find themselves as significant players in the playoffs. I'll be honest, I expect a step back for the Eagles' pass offense, particularly with Michael Vick, but the current setup with LeSean McCoy is the closest the Eagles have gotten under Andy Reid to having a legitimate running game. At the same time, the Eagles defense is easily one of the best in the league with Asomougha added. That doesn't mean that they should be handed the NFC right now though. Really, the two games between the Giants and Eagles will probably tell the tale of the division.

3. Dallas Cowboys
Projected Record: 7-9
Synopsis: A lot of people are high on Dallas. I just don't see it. This was an uninspired team last season that kicked it on when it didn't matter anymore, except to interim (no longer interim) Head Coach Jason Garrett. They get Tony Romo back, but really Jon Kitna wasn't the problem last year. Lack of discipline was, and it takes more than an offseason to fix that kind of issue. CB Terrence Newman will be key to their pass defense and to providing stability and leadership to a team that desperately could use it. Right now this is just a team of talented individuals, and their record will demonstrate that.

4. Washington Redskins
Projected Record: 3-13
Synopsis: I feel like Mike Shanahan can't get out of his own way. They wanted to start John Beck at QB, but he got outplayed in the preseason by Rex Grossman. They neglected any sort of long-term solution at QB in the draft. I do expect a very good season out of Tim Hightower in a system that tends to provide great performances from RBs that you may not expect it from. The passing game is an issue though. Santana Moss has underperformed in recent years and Jabar Gaffney can't be expected to be the guy on the other side. I do like the Redskins' defense. Brian Orakpo needs to have a big season at LB rushing the passer, and I'm interested in rookie Ryan Kerrigan on the other side. CB DeAngelo Hall is solid and they've added OJ Atogwe at safety.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
Projected Record: 13-3
Synopsis: The Saints have one of the best team leaders in the NFL in Drew Brees, and I expect him and the New Orleans offense to have another big season. Adding speedster RB Darren Sproles to the offense is an interesting element. Tackling can be an issue for their defense, and especially stopping the run, but with adding Sean Rogers to the middle of their defensive line with Shaun Ellis will go a long way. Malcolm Jenkins is stepping in at safety replacing big shoes in Darren Sharper, but I think he can do it in stride. Tracy Porter is one of the better lesser known corners in the game as well.

2. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Record: 11-5
Synopsis: The Falcons have one of the better all-around offenses in the game, and adding a potential WR on the other side of Roddy White could be a fantastic move. Julio Jones can contribute, but I don't expect the move to pay big dividends right away. The Falcons also can rest assured with depth at the RB position and a solid offensive line. Adding Ray Edwards to pass rush with John Abraham is the kind of move that put the Atlanta defense up a notch. I do think there are still issues at the safety position and if the Packers-Falcons playoff game means anything its that the Falcons pass defense needs improvement. I think the Falcons are well on their way though.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Record: 9-7
Synopsis: Just like the Lions this is another hard team to peg. The offense has a lot of question marks to be honest. Yes, they all performed well last season, starting with QB Josh Freeman, but not many on this squad have more to back themselves up than that one season to their name. The Bucs have a defense that isn't flashy and you may not know a lot of the names, but they get the job done, and I expect them to this season. I wouldn't be surprised if the defense carries them at times this season. I'm especially interested in rookie DE Adrian Clayborn, and really expect big things from him. If the offense can exceed expectations, this may be a playoff team.

4. Carolina Panthers
Projected Record: 3-13
Synopsis: So... Cam Newton. There's just a lot of instability on this team, starting with not knowing what to do with the QB position. I would not be surprised to see the Panthers use all 3 QBs on their roster at some point this season. I do think they can effectively run the ball, but they need to give the idea that they can at least pass the ball a little to make it work. I also think the Panthers have one of the weaker defenses in the league. Outside of CB Chris Gamble they don't really have any playmakers. Jon Beason is a very good LB but has injury issues. I expect offensive lines to have their way with the Panthers' front 4 though.

NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals
Projected Record: 11-5
Synopsis: One offseason can make all the difference for the Cardinals, especially with a big upgrade at the QB position in Kevin Kolb. Kolb is somewhat unproven but from what we saw in Philadelphia he should be able to link up with the best WR in the league in Larry Fitzgerald. My biggest question with their offense is if the system will sustain itself. They're pass heavy and the likes of Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are gone. I expect Early Doucet to have a big season at the WR position though. Defensively the Cardinals have a lot of playmakers and I expect them to get back to doing what they've done best in recent years. That is create turnovers. This is a defense that is very good at every level if Joey Porter and Clark Haggans have anything left in the tank at LB.

2. St. Louis Rams
Projected Record: 8-8
Synopsis: This could be a big year for the Rams. Offensively they still have Stephen Jackson at RB who will always produce. I just fear they don't have the weapons at WR to get Sam Bradford to the next level. Further, I question their depth on the offensive line. I do think the Rams have the opportunity to have a very good defense. Quintin Mikell is a nice addition at safety and they have a lot of young talent like DE Chris Long and LB James Lauranitis. Unfortunately, I just don't think they have enough offensively to make it happen, particularly if Stephen Jackson were to go down with an injury.

3. Seattle Seahawks
Projected Record: 7-9
Funny, last year this record won the division. Now it puts them in 3rd. Seattle will struggle offensively. I wouldn't be surprised to see QB Tavaris Jackson replaced with Charlie Whitehurst at some point and I don't find RB Marshawn Lynch to be in a position to really lead the offense. He's just not dynamic enough. Zach Miller is a nice addition at TE, but not enough. Outside of CB Marcus Trufant, I fear the Seahawks lack the ability to stop the pass. The personnel in the defensive backfield isn't there and Chris Clemons is their own quality pass rusher. Alan Branch and Brandon Mebane can go a long way in stopping the run though. They just don't have enough to grab the division by the horns.

4. San Fransisco 49ers
Projected Record: 3-13
Synopsis: With the 49ers offense there is potential, but I don't see it this season, not with Alex Smith at the helm for the ump-teenth time. I do like the weapons: Braylon Edwards, Ted Ginn, Josh Morgan, and Michael Crabtree, but Colin Kapernick needs to sit and learn a little before they give him the offense. If Frank Gore is healthy he will definitely get his, but the passing game doesn't have an orchestrator. I do think the 49ers can have a solid defense with the proper coaching, but this is a defense that needs discipline and for Patrick Willis to step up as a leader. He had a very pedestrian season for his standards last year as well, more is needed if the 49ers are to do better than expected.

What's the baseline?
NFC North: Bears
NFC East: Giants
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Cardinals
NFC Wildcard: Eagles & Falcons

NFL Preview: AFC

Can you believe it? Its September already. Fantasy football drafts have been fulfilled, the weather is cooling, the leaves are changing, the kids are back in school and the NFL starts back up this Thursday. And with the NFL starting up, it means its the time of year for an NFL Preview. Today, I start with the AFC. I will do this much like I did my MLB preview, in three parts. Now, I will begin with the AFC North, with team rankings, records, and a few brief sentences about all the teams. And so we shall begin.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Record: 13-3
Synopsis: The Steelers are perennial AFC favorites, and I expect nothing but more of the same this season. Health is the only thing that could keep them from reaching their peak performance, but having Troy Polamalu back, and Ben Roethlisberger on the team for all 16 games should be of great benefit. I'm interested to see if the transition to more of a passing offense continues as well.

2. Baltimore Ravens
Projected Record: 10-6
Synopsis: The biggest issue for this AFC stalwart is that eventually their defense is going to get old. Ray Lewis is 36. Ed Reed is 32. To combat that though, the offense has become significantly better. Adding speedster Lee Evans to the other side of other WR Anquan Boldin should enhance Joe Flacco's effectiveness, as should RB Ray Rice reaching his prime.

3. Cleveland Browns
Projected Record: 6-10
Synopsis: There's lots of young talent on this Browns team, but also a lot of question marks. I'm skeptical on how the defensive line will fare on pressuring the QB as well as the WRs ability to get open and aid young Colt McCoy in moving the ball downfield. Teams will be gunning for Peyton Hillis this year as well, so the offense may face severe challenges.

4. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Record: 3-13
Synopsis: As depicted before on this blog, the Bengals are a team headed in the wrong direction. Carson Palmer is gone, as is Chad Ochocinco. Cedric Benson is not only inconsistent, but in and out of jail. They have some good young weapons in Jermaine Gresham, AJ Green and Jordan Shipley, and the defense could be solid with Nate Clements joining Leon Hall at CB. I just don't see the Bengals not doing what they always do, shooting themselves in the foot.

AFC East
1. New York Jets
Projected Record: 13-3
Synopsis: This is a big season in the maturity of QB Mark Sanchez. He needs to show the focus and intensity over a 16 game season that he has shown in some of the biggest games he's played. This is still a greatly tenacious defense even without making any major additions. Adding Plaxico Burress is a move I expect to pay off majorly as he's still young enough to contribute and has fresh legs. Either Shonn Greene or LaDanian Tomlinson need to come up big in the running game as well, and I think at least one of them will, or they can play off each other.

2. New England Patriots
Projected Record: 11-5
Synopsis: The Patriots biggest issue last season was their pass defense, but by playing in a division without a very pass happy team, they get away with being solid enough for most of the season anyway. Devin McCourty is a great young CB that can help sure up that pass defense anyway. There's not much new to say about the offense though. It will be interesting to see if RBs BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will be able to replicate their high production levels of last season.

3. Miami Dolphins
Projected Record: 7-9
Synopsis: The Dolphins take a step backwards in losing RB Ronnie Brown and trying to make Reggie Bush their top back. I do like the set up on the fast Miami track, but I don't see Bush getting the majority of the carries for any team. This is a very strong defense though, particularly in the defensive backfield with Yeremiah Bell at safety, and young corner Sean Smith getting a year older and better to go with his physical skills.

4. Buffalo Bills
Projected Record: 3-13
Synopsis: This is a team that is going to take their lumps this season, but I could see taking another step forward with another good draft. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is vastly overrated, but they need some more weapons and more protection for him. The defense has some solid individual players but needs more to become a better overall squad. Saftey Jairus Byrd is a potential ballhawk of the future. Rookie Marcel Dareus at DE should be a player of interest as well. They could be well on their way after this season. Hang in there, Buffalo.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
Projected Record: 11-5
Synopsis: This is a team that could face some major challenges without its franchise player in the first few weeks, but once Peyton Manning is back and acclimated, its a team that's going to be very strong as always. He has all his weapons, and those weapons alone may salvage a game early in the season, and getting WR Anthony Gonzalez back could be a huge bonus as well. Stopping the run will be an issue for the Colts, especially with Bob Sanders entirely out of the organization, but its never been enough of an issue to keep them from winning games in the past.

2. Houston Texans
Projected Record: 11-5
Synopsis: Arian Foster burst on the scene last year and brought some serious balance to a once pass-heavy, but effective, offense. I expect him to get a lot of the attention this season, and therefore for the very capable Matt Schaub to have a especially strong season with Andre Johnson and the rest of their receivers. Defense was the weak point last season though, especially against the pass, but that's been improved by adding JJ Watt to the defensive line, and Jonathon Joseph at CB and Danieal Manning at safety. Mario Williams coming from the edge in a 3-4 should be an interest element as well.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Record: 4-12
Synopsis: It just a matter of time before QB David Garrard is taken out for rookie Blaine Gabbert, and its really not fault of his own. Garrard is capable, but this isn't a team set up for victory, particularly in his weapons and offensive line. They play in a tough division as well and although they added DE Aaron Kampman, LB Clint Session, and S Dawan Landry, I don't see them competing, mostly because, that's not the plan.

4. Tennessee Titans
Projected Record: 2-14
Synopsis: I'm going to ruin the surprise. I have the Titans pegged for the worst record in the NFL. There's a bad storm of problems on this team. Offensively, Matt Hasselbeck is over the hill, Chris Johnson is getting a very late start to his season due to his hold-out (I would be surprised if he actually gets injured on his return as well), Nate Washington has trouble holding onto the ball. Defensively, their defensive backs aren't too bad, but creating pressure is going to be an issue with their front 4. Its yet to be seen if they will be able to stop the run either.

AFC West
1. Oakland Raiders
Projected Record: 9-7
Synopsis: The defense had been the strength of this team, but losing Nnamdi Asomougha is a major issue. With that said, I see the Raiders offense hitting its stride this season. QB Jason Campbell will play all 16 games and finally find a system he can get comfortable in. RB Darren McFadden will have another fantastic season that may finally not go unnoticed. They have 3 WRs ready to take that next step in Lou Murphy, Chas Schilens, and Jacoby Ford. Adding Kevin Boss is a great safety valve. With all that, the defense has added enough pieces to be solid, and they compete in a division that is very up for grabs. I think the Raiders do the grabbing.

2. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Records: 9-7
Synopsis: The Chiefs were last season's surprise team and I think they very much compete for the division again. Coach Todd Haley has added some weapons for the very steady QB Matt Cassel to throw to. The defense is young and improving. They will compete on all levels. If nothing else they should stop the run with a strong front defensive line, and with Eric Berry patrolling the backfield, they can be strong. Their biggest issue will be consistency, and that's where I think they faulter.

3. San Diego Chargers
Projected Record: 7-9
Synopsis: Last year was a big season for the Chargers, but in the wrong way. They didn't make the playoffs for the first time in many years. I see the decline continuing. They're just too risky with the ball and the offense is volatile. I still don't see RB Ryan Matthews stepping up and that means more defensive focus on Philip Rivers, who will throw interceptions. The defense could be strong, but they haven't had their edge since losing Shawn Merriman's effectiveness. There's also a hole in the DBs once newly added Bob Sanders gets hurt.

4. Denver Broncos
Projected Record: 3-13
Synopsis: There's a lot of confusion and question marks on this Denver team. Kyle Orton will be the starting QB, but for how long? Is Brandon Lloyd going to repeat his season from last year at WR? How is moving to a 4-3 going to effect Elvis Dumervill and Robert Ayers? How many more years do Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins have in them? Ultimately, this team could actually compete in this division, but they have to come up with a plan and stick to it. Also, running the ball with Knowshon Moreno has always been an issue, and I think they may struggle stopping the run as well. That could be a recipe for disaster.

What's the baseline?
AFC North: Steelers
AFC East: Jets
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Raiders
AFC Wildcard: Texans & Patroits

We Salute You, Fred Taylor

He may not be a Hall of Famer, but he's certainly a class act and a superb football player in his own right. This is why we at Baseline Sports want to salute running back Fred Taylor for his 13 seasons of service in the NFL. Taylor will be retiring tomorrow after signing a one day contract with his original NFL team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who drafted him in the first round in 1998 and had the benefit of his play for the best years of his career through the 2008 season.

Taylor was the star running back for a Jaguars team, and a key component to what put that organization on the fast track to competing in the AFC. It wasn't until 1998 that the Jags won their first AFC Central Title (ha, remember the old AFC Central?). 1999 saw them reach the AFC Title Game.

Taylor is the franchise leader in rushing yards at over 11,000. When healthy, he was one of the premiere running backs in the league and the kind that an offense could solely depend on by not only being a feature back, but also through catching the ball and blocking.

Off the field Taylor was known as one of the hardest workers in the NFL, which made the cracks against him continuing to get hurt seem misleading, it wasn't a lack of desire to stay healthy that kept him off the field. His desire was further amplified by the fact he played the 2004 season with a broken bone in his foot, still rushing for over 1200 yards. He was also know as quiet and wanting to keep to himself, hardly wanting to cause trouble in the locker room, and even as he aged becoming a fantastic team leader.

Somehow, despite 7 seasons of 1000+ yards he only made one Pro Bowl, in 2007. Playing in the small market Jacksonville most likely had something to do with it, but it didn't hardly phase Taylor, who would have happily finished his career entirely with the Jags had their not been a change in the organization's direction that caused them to let him go after the 2008 season (that, and a guy named Maurice Jones-Drew waiting in the wings). Taylor didn't feel ready to end his career though so he went to New England and played a role while trying to win the Super Bowl that never came to him. Small market life, only one Pro Bowl, continuous injuries, and no rings will probably keep Taylor out of the Hall, which is a shame because I can think of few guys more deserving.

What's the baseline?
A fantastic man on and off the field, we will miss you, Fred Taylor. I have nothing but respect for you, and if nothing else, its nice to see you retire a Jaguar.

(photo courtesy of bigcatcountry.com)