First things first, admittedly, my mock draft was way off. That post certainly isn't my bright and shining moment on this blog, but really I don't think you can blame me. This was a really strange NFL Draft. With no free agency or player trades allowed it really changed the dynamics of the Draft, and I'm not so sure the GMs of the NFL teams entirely knew how to react to the situation around them. What we got then was a hodgepodge of a draft with some major quirks to it. The following is just some bullet pointed thoughts I personally have about the draft with some analysis.
- Why did Cam Newton go number 1?
What did Newton do to convince anyone he's number 1 pick potential? Is it the fact he barely threw 200 passes at the NCAA Division I level in his college career? Or is it the potential bad character issues that continue to swirl around him? Or is it the fact that the Panthers just drafted a franchise QB last season? Dumb pick. The only silver lining may be that unlike other 1st overall picks, if the owner's get their way Newton will have a capped contract based on rookie status, no major signing bonus for him.
- Jake Locker and Christian Ponder so early?
Locker I can understand to an extent. Tennessee needed a QB and clearly they saw something they really liked in Locker. Its still a stretch, but whatever. Ponder to the Vikings though? Did someone forget to tell them they probably could have gotten Ponder in the 3rd round?
- Mark Ingram to Saints
I absolutely love it. I mean, hate it from a fantasy standpoint, considering I'm trying to keep Pierre Thomas, but for the Saints I love it. At the least they found someone for the redzone, at the most they have a guy who can finally really run between the tackles and really change the pace of the game for the Saints. Drew Brees is potentially all that more dangerous now. Teams will really have to honor the run, opening a legitimate playaction pass game.
- TE Kyle Rudolph will rot with the Vikings
I don't get this pick by the Vikes either. They already have Visanthe Shiancoe and Jim Kleinsasser, why pick another TE? Unless they plan to convert one of them to FB (maybe Kleinsasser), or are meaning to faze Kleinsasser out this doesn't make sense. Shouldn't the Vikes have used one of their top 2 picks to sure up their DBs instead of really stretching on a QB and adding a 3rd string TE?
- Tampa Bay steals Da'Quan Bowers
What was the entire NFL thinking? Bowers went 51st overall. There was a time that people were thinking he could be the first pick of the draft. I know I would have picked him over Newton. Bowers has the potential to be the best pass rusher to come out of this draft. Even with his knee concerns he's better than 51st overall. Kudos Tampa.
- Houston nabs Brandon Harris
Another guy that dropped surprisingly far. Houston definitely benefits here, they could use the defense, especially in the backfield, and the fact they could wait this long to take some major talent just bodes well for them. Excellent pick by the Texans and a smart trade to get him.
- Kansas City gets Justin Houston
I thought Houston was a 1st round talent, but apparently I was alone. The Chiefs add him in the 3rd round, and he has the potential to really provide some production to an ever improving defensive line for the Chiefs. He could work really well on the opposite side of Tamba Hali.
- New England takes a flier on Ryan Mallet
What does it say about how the NFL views Ryan Mallet that Christian Ponder got taken 12th overall but Mallet's gone 74th. Mallet's got all the physical tools, but I think its apparent he's got a bad attitude and a lack of mental toughness. This was very Belichek to take a QB like this with lots of physical talent in hopes that he will strike oil, but I think even Belichek doubts it will happen. He'd just kick himself too much if he let Mallet go and he turned out somewhere else.
- Casey Matthews namesake
I wonder where Matthews would go if he wasn't a Matthews. Probably not quite as high. I don't expect much from this Eagles draftee. He's not nearly as quick as his brother and not much of a pass rusher. He's probably a serviceable LB, but nothing special. I'm glad no one reached for him. Perhaps the Eagles get solid value with a 4th round pick.
- Green Bay gets DJ Williams
This pick disappoints me a little solely because I think Williams could be a major contributor to an NFL team. But with Jermichael Finley coming back this season for the Packers, Williams opportunities to prove himself will be limited, unless Finley hits a set back. From the Packers' perspective, its a good insurance pick, especially since Donald Lee is really aging.
Who had the best draft?
I think the Saints had an amazing draft. Cameron Jordan was a very underrated first pick that could really help them on the defensive line. I already mentioned Ingram. Martez Wilson was arguably the best ILB in the draft. Johnny Patrick adds depth to the defensive backfield, especially when guys like Darren Sharper are aging and injuries shredded up the Saints DBs at times last season. The Lions are an honorable mention. Its going to be nearly impossible to run on them as they've added Nick Fairley to their D-Line and RB Mikel LeShoure is a really interesting pick too. I like adding the WR depth of Titus Young as well.
Who had the worst draft?
The Dolphins. Not because of a lot of busts, just not a lot of major guys to really look at. They took Mike Pouncey on name reputation, didn't pick a defensive player until the 7th round, and didn't do anything to address their QB problem. I hope the Dolphins have something up their sleeve for when the lockout ends, because otherwise they really didn't bother to improve much in a division with the Patriots and Jets. The (dis)honorable mention here is the Seahawks, but I think they got a pretty good volume of players, if not any really breakaway talent. I just question the strategy. Does a team that won their division last season still need to be in "we need bodies" mode?
What's the baseline?
Lets not mince words here, it was a weird draft. It was an entertaining one though too. I liked the chaos. It made things interesting. I'll be happy to really see how thing end up shaking out. I just hope I did better here with my predictions than I did with my mock.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Players Speak Out on MLB Playoff Expansion
First of all, Happy Easter to all those that observe it.
This is going to be a short post today, mostly because I'm in the midst of typing a 15 page paper for school and feel typed out, not that anybody really cares, but that's just a brief aside.
What I would like to do is bring up the issue of playoff expansion in Major League Baseball. On the one hand, MLB commissioner Bud Selig and the owners are ready and willing to implement an additional team to the MLB playoffs in each league, and in turn, another round of games. Earlier this week, Commissioner Selig gave the indication that such a change to the playoff system seems like it is all but settled on, and ready to be included in the 2012 postseason.
Not everyone is happy about this scenario though. Many people questioned whether or not any players would come out and question or denounce the change of the playoff system. There is the assumption that another round of playoffs means more opportunity for injury and an unnecessarily longer season, so therefore the players would be against it. That notion has been reaffirmed as players are now finally stating their opinions on the change, despite the fact its been rumored since last fall. With Selig's announcement earlier this week, the prospect of a longer playoffs finally seemed incredibly real, and now players are finally speaking up. The most vocal of the naysayers though, has been San Fransisco ace pitcher, Tim Lincecum. The following is a quote of what Lincecum had to say about the new policy.
What do we learn from this quote, outside of the fact Lincecum's vocabulary has been known to be suspect? What I take from it is that its good to see a player stand up for his rights and the sanctity of the game. Its reassuring to see a player finally say that something isn't about the money, especially when so often players get pegged as the greedy guy, and often deservedly so. Evidently though to Lincecum, money isn't the only thing that talks. And that's really nice to see. Lincecum also brings up the practicality issues of a 10 team system, which I will get in to in a different post at a later time, but his foresight is impressive, if not simplistic and slightly rude in his delivery.
If nothing else, I'm impressed with Lincecum. He's like "The Spaceman" Bill Lee's fireballing son that had a normal type mom to keep him from being just as crazy as his dad, if that makes any sense. And if you don't know who Bill Lee was, Google or maybe even Youtube him. He was a great pitcher and a zany but intelligent mind.
Anyway, Lincecum hits a lot of right notions square on the head, which is less than what we can say about opposing hitters when it comes to his pitches. Seeing such a major MLB star make such a statement in direct negation of the league commissioner, I would hope, will make Selig and his people pause and reconsider, but one can only hope.
What's the baseline?
Tim Lincecum, ace pitcher, now becoming baseball player spokesperson. Its good to see such a star player take a stand for his fellow players and the sanctity or baseball. Its especially pleasant to see when in turn he's turning down money for the league, and ultimately himself. Much respect, Lince.
This is going to be a short post today, mostly because I'm in the midst of typing a 15 page paper for school and feel typed out, not that anybody really cares, but that's just a brief aside.
What I would like to do is bring up the issue of playoff expansion in Major League Baseball. On the one hand, MLB commissioner Bud Selig and the owners are ready and willing to implement an additional team to the MLB playoffs in each league, and in turn, another round of games. Earlier this week, Commissioner Selig gave the indication that such a change to the playoff system seems like it is all but settled on, and ready to be included in the 2012 postseason.
Not everyone is happy about this scenario though. Many people questioned whether or not any players would come out and question or denounce the change of the playoff system. There is the assumption that another round of playoffs means more opportunity for injury and an unnecessarily longer season, so therefore the players would be against it. That notion has been reaffirmed as players are now finally stating their opinions on the change, despite the fact its been rumored since last fall. With Selig's announcement earlier this week, the prospect of a longer playoffs finally seemed incredibly real, and now players are finally speaking up. The most vocal of the naysayers though, has been San Fransisco ace pitcher, Tim Lincecum. The following is a quote of what Lincecum had to say about the new policy.
Personally I think it's kind of funky, just because the game has been this way for so long. Why mess it up, other than for monetary purposes, and that's probably what (Selig) is looking at... It doesn't seem very fair, and personally I don't know where his head is at. It doesn't seem right to me... Nobody wants to have to worry, 'Oh (expletive), now I've got another (expletive) team in the (expletive) mix... What if the (second) wild-card team is not deserving of getting in?* quote courtesy of the San Fransisco Chronicle
What do we learn from this quote, outside of the fact Lincecum's vocabulary has been known to be suspect? What I take from it is that its good to see a player stand up for his rights and the sanctity of the game. Its reassuring to see a player finally say that something isn't about the money, especially when so often players get pegged as the greedy guy, and often deservedly so. Evidently though to Lincecum, money isn't the only thing that talks. And that's really nice to see. Lincecum also brings up the practicality issues of a 10 team system, which I will get in to in a different post at a later time, but his foresight is impressive, if not simplistic and slightly rude in his delivery.
If nothing else, I'm impressed with Lincecum. He's like "The Spaceman" Bill Lee's fireballing son that had a normal type mom to keep him from being just as crazy as his dad, if that makes any sense. And if you don't know who Bill Lee was, Google or maybe even Youtube him. He was a great pitcher and a zany but intelligent mind.
Anyway, Lincecum hits a lot of right notions square on the head, which is less than what we can say about opposing hitters when it comes to his pitches. Seeing such a major MLB star make such a statement in direct negation of the league commissioner, I would hope, will make Selig and his people pause and reconsider, but one can only hope.
What's the baseline?
Tim Lincecum, ace pitcher, now becoming baseball player spokesperson. Its good to see such a star player take a stand for his fellow players and the sanctity or baseball. Its especially pleasant to see when in turn he's turning down money for the league, and ultimately himself. Much respect, Lince.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Why the NBA is Still Worth It
A lot has been made of the issues in the NBA this season, namely with the movement of star players locating themselves on superteams. Having LeBron James go on television and say that he was going to "take his talents" to Miami to play with Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade definitely did leave a sour taste in the mouths of a lot of NBA fans. Having Carmelo Anthony not only demand a trade to the Knicks, but then get his way and actually go to New York was just another step for the players of the NBA having way too much power and making the game a little bit of a sideshow. There are definite drawbacks to having these superteams form. In a sense, the NBA then has just a strong upper crust of teams and then the rest of the league is schedule of fillers. If you live in one of those cities with the pleasure of having a superteam, its a great setup, but for the rest of us, or just the casual NBA fan who wants highly competitive basketball, its a pretty weak setup. One of the things that people really like about the NFL is the "parity" that it has, well with just some elite teams at the top, its clear the NBA lacks that kind of parity that endears people to the NFL. This all goes against what I wanted to write this post about though. What I want to say is that despite this issue I've described, the NBA is still a fantastic sport to watch and really isn't as bad off as most people would let on at least in terms of this superteams issue. In reality, I don't find it to be that big of a deal. Here's why:
Looking at this year's NBA playoffs, I think you could make a legitimate argument for 8 teams that could win the NBA finals. San Antonio, the Lakers, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Chicago, Miami, Boston, and Orlando all have a true chance at the championship in my opinion. That's 8 teams out of a total of 30, 26.6 %, or over a quarter or the league with a conceivable chance to win the title.
Now let's compare that number to the NFL this past season. Of the playoff teams from this past season in the NFL, I think very few people expected the Kansas City Chiefs, or Seattle Seahawks would win the Super Bowl. So there were 10 out of 32 teams that were conceivable title contenders, that's 31.3%. The numbers lead to a 4.7% difference between the two leagues, which seems pretty small when you consider how people rave about the parity of the National Football League.
On the other hand, the MLB allows 8 of 30 teams in the playoffs, and the beauty of the MLB playoffs tends to be that all the teams in the playoffs have a true chance. That's the same 26.6% of teams that the NBA has. So in theory, as far as competitivity (if that's a word) the NBA is just as strong as the MLB, and people don't tend to complain about the number of teams with a chance to win it in baseball, more so why the teams at the top are the ones they are (a lack of salary cap and such).
There's something else to keep in mind though. There will always be some power mobility of NBA teams as time goes on. As the Boston Celtics age for instance, their run of title chases will come to an end, and other franchises then can step in and fill that power vacuum. You could see teams like the Knicks, the Clippers, and maybe a team or two that does well in the draft the next couple of years that could ascend to the top to replace teams like the Celtics, Spurs, and Lakers that are aging, or at least have aging stars. Those superteams are only strong due to their stars, so when those players get old, they no longer have a leg to stand on.
The draft is an important component too. Teams that do well in the draft automatically get their own star and could create their own superteams, or at least join role players together to compete, which is what the Thunder are currently doing and the Clippers could do since attaining Blake Griffin. Poor performing teams still can gain players and wins in future seasons by successfully utilizing the draft, as long as that privilege isn't taken away from such teams they will have a chance.
Lastly, I'd like to mention that to only have a few quality teams at the top of the league is simply the way the NBA has always really worked. This is illustrated by the idea that over the last 30 years 8 NBA franchises have won NBA titles. Essentially, the modern NBA has been defined by teams being strong at the top. Teams like Magic's Lakers, Larry Bird's Celtics, Michael Jordan's Bulls, and Tim Duncan's Spurs are the way of the NBA world. Further, in those same 30 years none of those NBA championship teams had less than 2 players that were All-Stars in their career. Most of the teams had multiple Hall of Famers/future Hall of Famers. So to say that having especially elite teams at the top of the league in the NBA is a new phenomenon would be a complete false truth.
Rather, this is the way the NBA works, its how the game is played. There are elite teams. They are either in their prime, rising, or falling as they age, and the cycle goes on. This isn't a new trend in the NBA, and its not one that really doesn't provide hope for those that don't have the power of superior talent in the NBA right now. I just don't think this situation of how the NBA works hit NBA fans in the face until a certain egomaniac went on television and made an infamous decision. Guess what LeBron, you didn't hit on some great new concept by going to Miami, in fact, its kind of old hat.
What's the baseline?
The NBA is still the same league it has always been, at least as long as its been under David Stern (1984). Don't get discouraged if you're living in a city with a poorly performing NBA team right now, not only do I expect the next Collective Bargaining Agreement to do something about this superteam thing at least in a sense, but if you're team drafts well, anything is possible anyway. Oklahoma City and San Antonio are strong teams, and those are small markets, so small markets definitely can survive in this NBA as well. Further, the NBA has arguably just as much parity as the MLB, and only a little less than the NFL by the numbers. So really complaints about the NBA are more just knee-jerk reactions to the visibility of player changes in very recent history.
Looking at this year's NBA playoffs, I think you could make a legitimate argument for 8 teams that could win the NBA finals. San Antonio, the Lakers, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Chicago, Miami, Boston, and Orlando all have a true chance at the championship in my opinion. That's 8 teams out of a total of 30, 26.6 %, or over a quarter or the league with a conceivable chance to win the title.
Now let's compare that number to the NFL this past season. Of the playoff teams from this past season in the NFL, I think very few people expected the Kansas City Chiefs, or Seattle Seahawks would win the Super Bowl. So there were 10 out of 32 teams that were conceivable title contenders, that's 31.3%. The numbers lead to a 4.7% difference between the two leagues, which seems pretty small when you consider how people rave about the parity of the National Football League.
On the other hand, the MLB allows 8 of 30 teams in the playoffs, and the beauty of the MLB playoffs tends to be that all the teams in the playoffs have a true chance. That's the same 26.6% of teams that the NBA has. So in theory, as far as competitivity (if that's a word) the NBA is just as strong as the MLB, and people don't tend to complain about the number of teams with a chance to win it in baseball, more so why the teams at the top are the ones they are (a lack of salary cap and such).
There's something else to keep in mind though. There will always be some power mobility of NBA teams as time goes on. As the Boston Celtics age for instance, their run of title chases will come to an end, and other franchises then can step in and fill that power vacuum. You could see teams like the Knicks, the Clippers, and maybe a team or two that does well in the draft the next couple of years that could ascend to the top to replace teams like the Celtics, Spurs, and Lakers that are aging, or at least have aging stars. Those superteams are only strong due to their stars, so when those players get old, they no longer have a leg to stand on.
The draft is an important component too. Teams that do well in the draft automatically get their own star and could create their own superteams, or at least join role players together to compete, which is what the Thunder are currently doing and the Clippers could do since attaining Blake Griffin. Poor performing teams still can gain players and wins in future seasons by successfully utilizing the draft, as long as that privilege isn't taken away from such teams they will have a chance.
Lastly, I'd like to mention that to only have a few quality teams at the top of the league is simply the way the NBA has always really worked. This is illustrated by the idea that over the last 30 years 8 NBA franchises have won NBA titles. Essentially, the modern NBA has been defined by teams being strong at the top. Teams like Magic's Lakers, Larry Bird's Celtics, Michael Jordan's Bulls, and Tim Duncan's Spurs are the way of the NBA world. Further, in those same 30 years none of those NBA championship teams had less than 2 players that were All-Stars in their career. Most of the teams had multiple Hall of Famers/future Hall of Famers. So to say that having especially elite teams at the top of the league in the NBA is a new phenomenon would be a complete false truth.
Rather, this is the way the NBA works, its how the game is played. There are elite teams. They are either in their prime, rising, or falling as they age, and the cycle goes on. This isn't a new trend in the NBA, and its not one that really doesn't provide hope for those that don't have the power of superior talent in the NBA right now. I just don't think this situation of how the NBA works hit NBA fans in the face until a certain egomaniac went on television and made an infamous decision. Guess what LeBron, you didn't hit on some great new concept by going to Miami, in fact, its kind of old hat.
What's the baseline?
The NBA is still the same league it has always been, at least as long as its been under David Stern (1984). Don't get discouraged if you're living in a city with a poorly performing NBA team right now, not only do I expect the next Collective Bargaining Agreement to do something about this superteam thing at least in a sense, but if you're team drafts well, anything is possible anyway. Oklahoma City and San Antonio are strong teams, and those are small markets, so small markets definitely can survive in this NBA as well. Further, the NBA has arguably just as much parity as the MLB, and only a little less than the NFL by the numbers. So really complaints about the NBA are more just knee-jerk reactions to the visibility of player changes in very recent history.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
MLB Now Runs Dodgers. Problem?
Just when you thought news couldn't get worse for the Los Angeles Dodgers, it probably just has. Not only did team owner Frank McCourt fire his wife as team president, which led to a divorce between the two (Frank suspected that his wife, Jamie, had been cheating, after 30 years of marriage). Not only has a San Fransisco Giants fan gotten put into a coma after an altercation at Dodgers Stadium because of incredibly stupid Dodgers fans that got physical with the innocent man. Now, there's more. Due to the clear incompetence on display by the Dodgers' brass as of late, as illustrated by the two above instances among others, Major League Baseball has wrestled the task of running the Los Angeles Dodgers away from McCourt and his staff. Bud Selig as of right now is, in effect, in charge of the Dodgers. Now, Selig is going to implement an interim President of Operations, and there are already names swirling about who that will be, but this whole notion involved of the baseball governing body in charge of one of the independent teams still scares me.
This move by Major League Baseball is unprecedented. Never the MLB just forced an ownership out of power and then decided who is going to run things for the meantime and long-term. Really, I don't have a problem with the forced removal of the Dodgers' ownership. That's not a new trick employed by the MLB. Marge Schott was forced out of ownership of the Cincinnati Reds in 1999, but her people at least got to choose who their successor would be, and there lies the problem.
My problem is having the MLB choose new leadership leads to a conflict of interest, much like it did when the MLB owned and operated the Montreal Expos in 2003. The MLB wanted the worst for the Expos, so they could ultimately move them, so they didn't bother to allow the callup of extra players in September to aid the team to a wildcard birth (a plausible notion for the Expos that season as September approached). Under the guise of being too expensive to extend the roster to 40-man status, the MLB decreed it would remain with its current 25 man roster and nothing more. Needless to say, the Expos missed the playoffs, and the team ultimately fizzled out, moving to Washington as the Nationals. A playoff birth or deep run could have at least delayed such a move, but the MLB wouldn't have it, and was later ridiculed for its practices. One could argue a city was robbed of its Major League Baseball team.
This above story is namely why the MLB has shied from taking over a team's ownership since 2003. When the Rangers were having problems last season, they put someone in charge of overseeing the transition of ownership and making sure it went smoothly, but the MLB didn't actually have a say in who was doing what and who was taking over. That's not the case with the Dodgers. The MLB is taking charge and putting someone in place to fulfill an agenda, an agenda that the MLB will approve of, otherwise the MLB wouldn't agree to put them in charge.
Now, what I'm not saying is that there's some type of conspiracy to run the Dodgers into the ground or do anything malignant with the LA franchise. That just wouldn't make sense. The Dodgers are a stalwart of baseball, they've been around forever, have a rich history, and do their business in a big market. They make the MLB a lot of money and have been a very successful franchise in the past. They also could compete in the near future. What I do fear though is the precedent this move sets. If the MLB can do this with the Dodgers, what's to keep them from doing it with the Pirates? The Pirates haven't been using their revenue sharing money to improve personnel on the field. This is a known fact. All of a sudden Selig deems that front office incompetent too and implements an administrator with an agenda. However, this time the Pirates aren't protected by their big market and past history of being incredibly profitable. Hence there would be a conflict of interest much like the Expos scenario. Come the next season, or shortly thereafter, citing low attendance and poor field performance, the new full time ownership of the Pirates announces they are moving to Nashville/Las Vegas/Brooklyn/wherever. That low attendance was aided by practices like those the MLB implemented to the Expos. Not only was the Pittsburgh market robbed by administrators cheating at revenue sharing and not putting the best product on the field. They were then cheated out of the best product by the MLB wanting to make more money in a new market. Ultimately, they're cheated completely with the removal of their franchise.
The next thing you know, the Blue Jays are playing in San Jose.
Now I'm definitely portraying a doomsday scenario. I admit that. However, I really think its something we need to be wary of as sports fans, and particularly MLB fans. Its an even more important issue for those of us that are fans in small markets. The MLB exists to make money, and if they can find a way to make more money, than they are going to use it, and ultimately I could see takeovers like the one of the Dodgers leading down this ugly path. I'm most likely wrong though, or at least I hope I am. It would be a total travesty to see a city robbed of its franchise for all the wrong reasons. But sleazier things have happened in this world too.
What's the baseline?
The MLB taking over the Los Angeles Dodgers results in a nasty precedent that could lead to future woes, particularly of small market teams in pro baseball. The MLB taking over a team presents a conflict of interest in being loyal to a current fanbase when times are tough and cash is low, while still trying to make the most money possible for the league. Potentially, this is a slippery slope, that could lead to ugly relocations, but I hope I'm wrong.
This move by Major League Baseball is unprecedented. Never the MLB just forced an ownership out of power and then decided who is going to run things for the meantime and long-term. Really, I don't have a problem with the forced removal of the Dodgers' ownership. That's not a new trick employed by the MLB. Marge Schott was forced out of ownership of the Cincinnati Reds in 1999, but her people at least got to choose who their successor would be, and there lies the problem.
My problem is having the MLB choose new leadership leads to a conflict of interest, much like it did when the MLB owned and operated the Montreal Expos in 2003. The MLB wanted the worst for the Expos, so they could ultimately move them, so they didn't bother to allow the callup of extra players in September to aid the team to a wildcard birth (a plausible notion for the Expos that season as September approached). Under the guise of being too expensive to extend the roster to 40-man status, the MLB decreed it would remain with its current 25 man roster and nothing more. Needless to say, the Expos missed the playoffs, and the team ultimately fizzled out, moving to Washington as the Nationals. A playoff birth or deep run could have at least delayed such a move, but the MLB wouldn't have it, and was later ridiculed for its practices. One could argue a city was robbed of its Major League Baseball team.
This above story is namely why the MLB has shied from taking over a team's ownership since 2003. When the Rangers were having problems last season, they put someone in charge of overseeing the transition of ownership and making sure it went smoothly, but the MLB didn't actually have a say in who was doing what and who was taking over. That's not the case with the Dodgers. The MLB is taking charge and putting someone in place to fulfill an agenda, an agenda that the MLB will approve of, otherwise the MLB wouldn't agree to put them in charge.
Now, what I'm not saying is that there's some type of conspiracy to run the Dodgers into the ground or do anything malignant with the LA franchise. That just wouldn't make sense. The Dodgers are a stalwart of baseball, they've been around forever, have a rich history, and do their business in a big market. They make the MLB a lot of money and have been a very successful franchise in the past. They also could compete in the near future. What I do fear though is the precedent this move sets. If the MLB can do this with the Dodgers, what's to keep them from doing it with the Pirates? The Pirates haven't been using their revenue sharing money to improve personnel on the field. This is a known fact. All of a sudden Selig deems that front office incompetent too and implements an administrator with an agenda. However, this time the Pirates aren't protected by their big market and past history of being incredibly profitable. Hence there would be a conflict of interest much like the Expos scenario. Come the next season, or shortly thereafter, citing low attendance and poor field performance, the new full time ownership of the Pirates announces they are moving to Nashville/Las Vegas/Brooklyn/wherever. That low attendance was aided by practices like those the MLB implemented to the Expos. Not only was the Pittsburgh market robbed by administrators cheating at revenue sharing and not putting the best product on the field. They were then cheated out of the best product by the MLB wanting to make more money in a new market. Ultimately, they're cheated completely with the removal of their franchise.
The next thing you know, the Blue Jays are playing in San Jose.
Now I'm definitely portraying a doomsday scenario. I admit that. However, I really think its something we need to be wary of as sports fans, and particularly MLB fans. Its an even more important issue for those of us that are fans in small markets. The MLB exists to make money, and if they can find a way to make more money, than they are going to use it, and ultimately I could see takeovers like the one of the Dodgers leading down this ugly path. I'm most likely wrong though, or at least I hope I am. It would be a total travesty to see a city robbed of its franchise for all the wrong reasons. But sleazier things have happened in this world too.
What's the baseline?
The MLB taking over the Los Angeles Dodgers results in a nasty precedent that could lead to future woes, particularly of small market teams in pro baseball. The MLB taking over a team presents a conflict of interest in being loyal to a current fanbase when times are tough and cash is low, while still trying to make the most money possible for the league. Potentially, this is a slippery slope, that could lead to ugly relocations, but I hope I'm wrong.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
NBA Playoff Prognostication
I have to say, it actually went by fairly fast. The NBA regular season ended this past Thursday and the playoffs actually began earlier today and are currently going on. We definitely saw a regular season of power shifting in the NBA. There are new teams at the top vying for the most illustrious title in basketball, the NBA Finals trophy. Today, I will take a look at the NBA playoffs and how I expect them to shape out. I go through every series, who will win, a brief description of the teams against each other, and how long the series will go. We will start with the Eastern Conference first round.
First Round
#8 Pacers vs. #1 Bulls
In some ways, the Pacers are giant killers. They've played up to their competition during the regular season several times. They don't have nearly the talent to really pursue a chance against the Bulls. Too much firepower.
Bulls win in 5.
#7 76ers vs. #2 Heat
The 76ers are a team on the rise. They got a lot of young talent, with a strong backcourt. They could use more size up front though. Once again, the Heat just has too much talent, but I question their heart, and their urgency in an early round series. The Heat will win, but they're probably let the 76ers stick around much longer than they should.
Heat win in 6.
#6 Knicks vs. #3 Celtics
The Knicks just aren't ready yet. They have a lot of talent and 2 stars in Amare Stoudamire and Carmelo Anthony, but they haven't gelled yet. They're playing a veteran, well-tested Celtics team that comes to play every night from April on. The Knicks will fight, and this series could be a foreshadowing of a changing of the guard in the East, but I like the Celtics this time.
Celtics win in 6.
#5 Hawks vs. #4 Magic
The Hawks are a shame. They have tons of quality individual players but have just never been able to put it together. That said, I think they will score well against the defensively-weak Magic. The problem is the Hawks don't have an answer for Dwight Howard on the block, even with all-star Al Horford. The Magic can score with the Hawks and have a better planned team, and a better coach. But this should be a good series.
Magic win in 7 (I've been going back and forth between 6 and 7 since I decided to write this post)
#8 Grizzlies vs. #1 Spurs
The Grizzlies showed a lot of heart in establishing themselves ahead of the pack for the 8 seed. Furthermore, this Grizzlies team has a young, quality starting 5. They don't have any depth though. On the other side, this is old hat for the Spurs. Even with their struggles lately the Spurs are too self-confident and play too well. The upstart Griz could really give a run, especially with the Spurs struggles, but I really don't expect it.
Spurs win in 5.
#7 Hornets vs #2 Lakers
I wouldn't be surprised if Chris Paul's back hurts from carrying the Hornets all season. I expect him to give the Lakers his all, but the Hornets are really outmatched. It would take some Herculean performances from Paul and a complete meltdown of Kobe Bryant to keep the Lakers from winning this series. I really doubt that. I'll give the Hornets one win at home, but I think that's even suspect.
Lakers win in 5.
#6 Blazers vs. #3 Mavericks
This is a trap series. The Blazers are misleading because they had a really hard time staying healthy all season. Brandon Roy is definitely not 100% (and probably never will be again), but they have lots of quality players, and I think they are about to peak. Adding Gerald Wallace was genius too. If I were coaching the Blazers, I'd consider sticking him on Dirk Nowitzki. I don't know if that's a novel idea or obvious... Anyway, on the other hand Dallas's seeding and record is inflated by a hot start. They really haven't played that well down the stretch. They really concern me.
Blazers win in 6.
#5 Nuggets vs. #4 Thunder
Speaking of down the stretch, the Nuggets have been red hot. I really expect them to give the Thunder a run. But the Thunder have been playing quality basketball too, especially since grabbing Kendrick Perkins from the Celtics. Kevin Durant is a competitor, he'll take the spirit that the Nuggets will come with and respond. Look out world, I expect Kevin Durant to really take the next step in these playoffs, and it starts in this series.
Thunder win in 7.
2nd Round
#4 Magic vs. #1 Bulls
The Magic would be rolling along if they didn't have to face a defensively minded team, but they do. The Bulls are hard on the defensive end, furthermore they have Joakim Noah, who will stand up to Dwight Howard and slow him down. If not, Carlos Boozer could step in too. The Bulls' size gives them the ticket to the series, that and the fact the Magic's lack of defensive means having no answer to Derrick Rose wreaking havoc both scoring and dishing.
Bulls win in 6.
#3 Celtics vs. #2 Heat
The Celtics are aging, they lack the strength and height they once had with Kendrick Perkins, but they won't go quietly into the night. I don't think the Heat have any answer for Rajon Rondo, who's made a job of ruining things in the playoffs for LeBron James in recent history. I really think the Celtics will just want it more. They know what's up, this may be their last chance. The Heat are still young, they'd rather flex and look pretty. They think they have plenty of time yet. Talent can only take you so far. Especially in the playoffs where defense is so key, you need heart.
Celtics win in 7.
#4 Thunder vs. #1 Spurs
Remember when I said it was time for Kevin Durant to take the next step? This is it. The Spurs are ripe for the picking against a young, up-start Thunder team with a lot of quiet confidence. Maybe if the Spurs we're a couple years younger, or at least securely healthy, its their series, but they're not. The Thunder's got a lot of talent with it being led by Durant and Russell Westbrook, they've also added role players. This series is an illustration of the power shift in the NBA. Assume the position, Kevin Durant.
Thunder win in 6.
#6 Blazers vs. #2 Lakers
Like I said, the Blazers have a lot of unnoticed talent, and could really make noise, but the Lakers are too veteran, too secure in themselves and too driven. I think Nicolas Batum could be a big factor in this series though for the Blazers. If he can get off and either force the Lakers to take attention off Roy or let him Batum score then the Blazers' chances get a lot better. I'm just afraid the Lakers' experience factor puts them over the top.
Lakers win in 7.
Conference Finals
#3 Celtics vs. #1 Bulls
The Bulls have finally met their match. Look for lots of really good point guard play in this matchup with Rose and Rondo, but I think its the Bulls size and the Celtics' lack of size that will really tell the tale. Perhaps Chicago's lack of experience in the playoffs will be a disservice to them, but I doubt it. That's a quality all-around basketball team with talent at all positions. Also, the Celtics age and wear and tear is about to catch up with them. I'll take the younger, fresher legs.
Bulls win in 6.
#4 Thunder vs. #2 Lakers
This could be the exchange of power in the West with Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant, but I don't think it is this year. That's more due to the supporting casts though. I think the players around Kobe are just better than those around Durant right now. I will say, Kendrick Perkins has given the Lakers fits as a Celtic, but with a healthy Andrew Bynum and the versatility of Lamar Odom then properly utilized, I like the Lakers.
Lakers win in 7.
NBA Finals
#2 Lakers vs. #1 Bulls
The move to grab Carlos Boozer in the offseason pays great dividends for the Bulls in the end. This should be a fantastic matchup of teams. Both teams have size and swing players that can score. I feel like with the quality of stars on both teams, the games may really come down to role players. Whose bench and role players can step up will be a huge deciding factor. The Lakers have taken a step back in their bench from previous seasons, and the Bulls have some talented veterans to replace starters. Ultimately I think the firepower of guys like Kyle Korver and Luol Deng will be too much. The Lakers will finally fall short, but I'd still expect great performances from every star involved in this series.
Bulls win in 7.
Finals MVP: Carlos Boozer, PF, Chicago Bulls
What's the baseline?
Expect the Blazers to make noise and the Thunder to really challenge for the Western Conference. Ultimately, the Bulls beat the Lakers in the Finals behind a full repertoire of players. The Finals MVP will be Carlos Boozer in the end. Bulls beat the Lakers in a thriller of a 7 game series.
First Round
#8 Pacers vs. #1 Bulls
In some ways, the Pacers are giant killers. They've played up to their competition during the regular season several times. They don't have nearly the talent to really pursue a chance against the Bulls. Too much firepower.
Bulls win in 5.
#7 76ers vs. #2 Heat
The 76ers are a team on the rise. They got a lot of young talent, with a strong backcourt. They could use more size up front though. Once again, the Heat just has too much talent, but I question their heart, and their urgency in an early round series. The Heat will win, but they're probably let the 76ers stick around much longer than they should.
Heat win in 6.
#6 Knicks vs. #3 Celtics
The Knicks just aren't ready yet. They have a lot of talent and 2 stars in Amare Stoudamire and Carmelo Anthony, but they haven't gelled yet. They're playing a veteran, well-tested Celtics team that comes to play every night from April on. The Knicks will fight, and this series could be a foreshadowing of a changing of the guard in the East, but I like the Celtics this time.
Celtics win in 6.
#5 Hawks vs. #4 Magic
The Hawks are a shame. They have tons of quality individual players but have just never been able to put it together. That said, I think they will score well against the defensively-weak Magic. The problem is the Hawks don't have an answer for Dwight Howard on the block, even with all-star Al Horford. The Magic can score with the Hawks and have a better planned team, and a better coach. But this should be a good series.
Magic win in 7 (I've been going back and forth between 6 and 7 since I decided to write this post)
#8 Grizzlies vs. #1 Spurs
The Grizzlies showed a lot of heart in establishing themselves ahead of the pack for the 8 seed. Furthermore, this Grizzlies team has a young, quality starting 5. They don't have any depth though. On the other side, this is old hat for the Spurs. Even with their struggles lately the Spurs are too self-confident and play too well. The upstart Griz could really give a run, especially with the Spurs struggles, but I really don't expect it.
Spurs win in 5.
#7 Hornets vs #2 Lakers
I wouldn't be surprised if Chris Paul's back hurts from carrying the Hornets all season. I expect him to give the Lakers his all, but the Hornets are really outmatched. It would take some Herculean performances from Paul and a complete meltdown of Kobe Bryant to keep the Lakers from winning this series. I really doubt that. I'll give the Hornets one win at home, but I think that's even suspect.
Lakers win in 5.
#6 Blazers vs. #3 Mavericks
This is a trap series. The Blazers are misleading because they had a really hard time staying healthy all season. Brandon Roy is definitely not 100% (and probably never will be again), but they have lots of quality players, and I think they are about to peak. Adding Gerald Wallace was genius too. If I were coaching the Blazers, I'd consider sticking him on Dirk Nowitzki. I don't know if that's a novel idea or obvious... Anyway, on the other hand Dallas's seeding and record is inflated by a hot start. They really haven't played that well down the stretch. They really concern me.
Blazers win in 6.
#5 Nuggets vs. #4 Thunder
Speaking of down the stretch, the Nuggets have been red hot. I really expect them to give the Thunder a run. But the Thunder have been playing quality basketball too, especially since grabbing Kendrick Perkins from the Celtics. Kevin Durant is a competitor, he'll take the spirit that the Nuggets will come with and respond. Look out world, I expect Kevin Durant to really take the next step in these playoffs, and it starts in this series.
Thunder win in 7.
2nd Round
#4 Magic vs. #1 Bulls
The Magic would be rolling along if they didn't have to face a defensively minded team, but they do. The Bulls are hard on the defensive end, furthermore they have Joakim Noah, who will stand up to Dwight Howard and slow him down. If not, Carlos Boozer could step in too. The Bulls' size gives them the ticket to the series, that and the fact the Magic's lack of defensive means having no answer to Derrick Rose wreaking havoc both scoring and dishing.
Bulls win in 6.
#3 Celtics vs. #2 Heat
The Celtics are aging, they lack the strength and height they once had with Kendrick Perkins, but they won't go quietly into the night. I don't think the Heat have any answer for Rajon Rondo, who's made a job of ruining things in the playoffs for LeBron James in recent history. I really think the Celtics will just want it more. They know what's up, this may be their last chance. The Heat are still young, they'd rather flex and look pretty. They think they have plenty of time yet. Talent can only take you so far. Especially in the playoffs where defense is so key, you need heart.
Celtics win in 7.
#4 Thunder vs. #1 Spurs
Remember when I said it was time for Kevin Durant to take the next step? This is it. The Spurs are ripe for the picking against a young, up-start Thunder team with a lot of quiet confidence. Maybe if the Spurs we're a couple years younger, or at least securely healthy, its their series, but they're not. The Thunder's got a lot of talent with it being led by Durant and Russell Westbrook, they've also added role players. This series is an illustration of the power shift in the NBA. Assume the position, Kevin Durant.
Thunder win in 6.
#6 Blazers vs. #2 Lakers
Like I said, the Blazers have a lot of unnoticed talent, and could really make noise, but the Lakers are too veteran, too secure in themselves and too driven. I think Nicolas Batum could be a big factor in this series though for the Blazers. If he can get off and either force the Lakers to take attention off Roy or let him Batum score then the Blazers' chances get a lot better. I'm just afraid the Lakers' experience factor puts them over the top.
Lakers win in 7.
Conference Finals
#3 Celtics vs. #1 Bulls
The Bulls have finally met their match. Look for lots of really good point guard play in this matchup with Rose and Rondo, but I think its the Bulls size and the Celtics' lack of size that will really tell the tale. Perhaps Chicago's lack of experience in the playoffs will be a disservice to them, but I doubt it. That's a quality all-around basketball team with talent at all positions. Also, the Celtics age and wear and tear is about to catch up with them. I'll take the younger, fresher legs.
Bulls win in 6.
#4 Thunder vs. #2 Lakers
This could be the exchange of power in the West with Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant, but I don't think it is this year. That's more due to the supporting casts though. I think the players around Kobe are just better than those around Durant right now. I will say, Kendrick Perkins has given the Lakers fits as a Celtic, but with a healthy Andrew Bynum and the versatility of Lamar Odom then properly utilized, I like the Lakers.
Lakers win in 7.
NBA Finals
#2 Lakers vs. #1 Bulls
The move to grab Carlos Boozer in the offseason pays great dividends for the Bulls in the end. This should be a fantastic matchup of teams. Both teams have size and swing players that can score. I feel like with the quality of stars on both teams, the games may really come down to role players. Whose bench and role players can step up will be a huge deciding factor. The Lakers have taken a step back in their bench from previous seasons, and the Bulls have some talented veterans to replace starters. Ultimately I think the firepower of guys like Kyle Korver and Luol Deng will be too much. The Lakers will finally fall short, but I'd still expect great performances from every star involved in this series.
Bulls win in 7.
Finals MVP: Carlos Boozer, PF, Chicago Bulls
What's the baseline?
Expect the Blazers to make noise and the Thunder to really challenge for the Western Conference. Ultimately, the Bulls beat the Lakers in the Finals behind a full repertoire of players. The Finals MVP will be Carlos Boozer in the end. Bulls beat the Lakers in a thriller of a 7 game series.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
A Sour Closure: Manny Ramirez
Apparently, the third time really is the charm, or in this case, the third time is the demise. National reports state that Manny Ramirez failed a drug test that he took as he entered Tampa Bay Rays' camp this February. The story became public this past Friday and was accompanied by Ramirez's own announcement that he would be retiring rather than facing a 100 game suspension for a second failed drug test under the MLB's policy. Other than the two failed drug tests it is also rumored that Ramirez's name came up in the preliminary steroid testing MLB did in 2003 that did not involve any penalties for positive tests. A failed drug test for any top shelf MLB player invites disappointment, but for a guy like Manny Ramirez, it leaves an extra tinge that is hard to explain. Personally, I can't put a definitive word on it. It just leaves a bad, sour, taste in my mouth.
With or without any performance enhancers I would be willing to contend that Manny Ramirez is more than likely the purest hitter of his generation. He was the right-handed Ted Williams of the 1990s and 2000s. From coming up in the majors with the Indians (where I saw him on a nightly basis), to his prime in Boston, Ramirez's swing was pure, the ball jumped off his bat, and his eye at the plate was impeccably sharp. There were no holes in Ramirez's swing, no pitcher, no at-bat, no count was ever safe. I remember a game winning homer Ramirez hit in 1995 against Oakland off of the great closer Dennis Eckersley. Eckersley peppered the outside corner with a fastball at the knees. Ramirez put it into the left field bleachers and made it look easy in the process. As Eckersley walked off the field after the homer, one word came out of his mouth apparent to the television cameras. "WOW!". You can't teach the skills Manny had, and you certainly can't chemically fuse them in a science lab. Manny may be one of the most talented baseball souls to ever walk this Earth. But, although those talents can't be created with performance enhancers, they probably can be sustained. Manny's 38. He's not the same spry young kid he was in '95. I have no doubt his desire to stir up his own old excellence was more than likely his demise, the reason for his drug use, and ultimately what's made him turn his back from the game he was so good at.
It truly is a shame. Not only will we never see one of the greatest hitters of all-time ever again, but his reputation has more than likely been permanently soiled. Manny's hall of fame chances, which due to his skills should never even have a question placed near them, are more than likely gone, and rightfully so. He's a cheater, and he needs to pay the penalty, especially since he's stepping away from the game so sheepishly. Its all really so unfortunate. Manny, you would've been a hall of famer without the drugs. Now, you're just one more black eye placed on the game due to the steroid era. I wish we could celebrate Manny Ramirez 20 years from now, his talents, his hilarious personality and antics. Now his story will have to be hidden. Sad.
(photo courtesy of cleveland.com)
Monday, April 4, 2011
MLB Preview III
This is my final post in regard to the start of the Major League Baseball season and my predictions. Here, we will be revisiting the 8 teams I chose for the playoffs and how the playoffs will play out. I will also provide some basic preseason awards for who I expect to be the best players in the game. For now, we start with the American League.
ALDS
Minnesota vs. Boston
Synopsis: Minnesota is a great regular season team. They've been that way for years, but they falter in October. This season is no different. I like the depth of Lester, Beckett, Bucholz, and Lackey, and the overall firepower Boston has too. Boston.
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Synopsis: A rematch of the ALDS last season. Texas won't have Cliff Lee this time around, but I like the seasoned poise last year's trek into the postseason more than likely provided. If nothing else, Texas flat outscores Tampa. Texas.
NLDS
Colorado vs. Philadelphia
Synopsis: Seriously, we need to find someone that's able to beat the tandem of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels. If the Rockies are red hot like they often are in October, it could actually be them, but I'm not willing to take that chance. Philadelphia.
Milwaukee vs. San Fransisco
Synopsis: I really like the team the Brewers have accumulated. They pitch well, with 4 starters I'm confident in, they can mash, and are fast. As long as their defense doesn't let them down I think they can sneak by San Fransisco, who just isn't the well rounded team Milwaukee is. Milwaukee.
ALCS
Texas vs. Boston
Synopsis: It took this long, but Texas finally misses the presence of Cliff Lee. The Red Sox are simply too much for the defending AL Champs. I'd expect an offensive series, but its ultimately Boston's solid pitching that puts them over the top. Boston.
NLCS
Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
Synopsis: I think Milwaukee really pushes Philadelphia to the brink, and honestly, I could give Milwaukee the series depending upon how healthy the Phillies are at this juncture. I have the give the Phils the benefit of the doubt though. They still got the big 4 in the rotation, and that's hard to argue against. Philadelphia.
World Series
Boston vs. Philadelphia
Synopsis: This could be a great World Series, and its the World Series of the 2 teams that unofficially won the winter this past offseason. I like the Phillies. I like their veteran leadership, their manager, their pitching, and think they are the team to beat here. Philadelphia.
Awards
AL MVP Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: baseball is his best detox tool.
NL MVP Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: Poised for a big send off in St. Louis (sorry Cardinals fans)
AL Cy Young Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox: With all the new founded run support and health around him, its his year. He's already a premier pitcher.
NL Cy Young Tim Lincecum, San Fransisco Giants: 3 in 4 years for The Freak.
AL Rookie of the Year SP Michael Pineda, Seattle Mariners: Going on a bit of a limb, but he could throw gas on a team that could use him.
NL Rookie of the Year OF Domonic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies: Not starting from the get go, but that won't last. This guy's the reason the Phils felt comfortable parting with Jayson Werth.
AL Manager of the Year Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay: 91 wins after all the guys they lost? He deserves it.
NL Manager of the Year Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia Phillies: 101 wins with a team that's working through injuries, even with that rotation, is a great feat to manage.
What's the baseline?
Phillies pegged to be champs by beating Boston in the World Series.
ALDS
Minnesota vs. Boston
Synopsis: Minnesota is a great regular season team. They've been that way for years, but they falter in October. This season is no different. I like the depth of Lester, Beckett, Bucholz, and Lackey, and the overall firepower Boston has too. Boston.
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Synopsis: A rematch of the ALDS last season. Texas won't have Cliff Lee this time around, but I like the seasoned poise last year's trek into the postseason more than likely provided. If nothing else, Texas flat outscores Tampa. Texas.
NLDS
Colorado vs. Philadelphia
Synopsis: Seriously, we need to find someone that's able to beat the tandem of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels. If the Rockies are red hot like they often are in October, it could actually be them, but I'm not willing to take that chance. Philadelphia.
Milwaukee vs. San Fransisco
Synopsis: I really like the team the Brewers have accumulated. They pitch well, with 4 starters I'm confident in, they can mash, and are fast. As long as their defense doesn't let them down I think they can sneak by San Fransisco, who just isn't the well rounded team Milwaukee is. Milwaukee.
ALCS
Texas vs. Boston
Synopsis: It took this long, but Texas finally misses the presence of Cliff Lee. The Red Sox are simply too much for the defending AL Champs. I'd expect an offensive series, but its ultimately Boston's solid pitching that puts them over the top. Boston.
NLCS
Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
Synopsis: I think Milwaukee really pushes Philadelphia to the brink, and honestly, I could give Milwaukee the series depending upon how healthy the Phillies are at this juncture. I have the give the Phils the benefit of the doubt though. They still got the big 4 in the rotation, and that's hard to argue against. Philadelphia.
World Series
Boston vs. Philadelphia
Synopsis: This could be a great World Series, and its the World Series of the 2 teams that unofficially won the winter this past offseason. I like the Phillies. I like their veteran leadership, their manager, their pitching, and think they are the team to beat here. Philadelphia.
Awards
AL MVP Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: baseball is his best detox tool.
NL MVP Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: Poised for a big send off in St. Louis (sorry Cardinals fans)
AL Cy Young Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox: With all the new founded run support and health around him, its his year. He's already a premier pitcher.
NL Cy Young Tim Lincecum, San Fransisco Giants: 3 in 4 years for The Freak.
AL Rookie of the Year SP Michael Pineda, Seattle Mariners: Going on a bit of a limb, but he could throw gas on a team that could use him.
NL Rookie of the Year OF Domonic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies: Not starting from the get go, but that won't last. This guy's the reason the Phils felt comfortable parting with Jayson Werth.
AL Manager of the Year Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay: 91 wins after all the guys they lost? He deserves it.
NL Manager of the Year Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia Phillies: 101 wins with a team that's working through injuries, even with that rotation, is a great feat to manage.
What's the baseline?
Phillies pegged to be champs by beating Boston in the World Series.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
National League Preview (MLB Preview II)
I guess technically this isn't a preview any more since the Major League Baseball season has started, but that doesn't change the fact that most teams still have at least 160 games to go. There's a lot of baseball to be played yet, the weather hasn't even broken in most of the north. So anyway, this is the NL version of my MLB preview. We'll get right to it now, this is the same format as the AL preview, starting with the NL West...
NL West
1. San Fransisco Giants
Projected Record: 92-70
Synopsis: The Giants had the best pitching the baseball both on paper and on the field last season, and the establishment of Madison Bumgarner into the rotation from day 1 this season makes them all that more formidable of a rotation. Offensively, the Giants weren't that substantial last year, but they hit enough and had a knack for the timely hit. A lot of their success this year may fall on those timely hits again. The lineup should get stronger with C Buster Posey now having major league experience. It should be interesting to see if rookie 1B Brandon Belt can add a spark to the lineup and if not if OF Cody Ross can keep last year's postseason mojo flowing into the new season when he comes off the DL. This is an all-around good pitching team, including the bullpen, and the offense is improving, and adequate. Giants dominance could be becoming a trend in the NL West with that staff.
2. Colorado Rockies
Projected Record: 90-72
Synopsis: The Rockies are a young, and very talented team that just missed the playoffs last season after an uninspired first half. They grew a lot and I think are really poised to make some noise this season. SS Troy Tulowitzki and LF Carlos Gonzalez are potential MVP candidates not just this season but for years to come. They comprise the core of the team with SP Ubaldo Jimenez. The question is, do the Rockies have enough talent around these stars to really sustain themselves. I think they do. CF Dexter Fowler has a bright future and SP Jorge de la Rosa has quietly become a very solid pitcher. Closer Huston Street seems to be back. He threw well this spring. This team is a definite wildcard in more ways than one.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected Record: 77-85
Synopsis: I think this team is a lot closer to success than most people do. The Diamondbacks have some serious talent. The bullpen is strong with JJ Putz as the anchor and they have a lot of young, live arms in their rotation ready to grow, with Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson leading the way. RF Justin Upton is an incredible talent and sky's the limit for him as a 5 tool player. The corner infield positions are definitely an achilles' heal for this team, with Melvin Mora at 3B and Juan Miranda at 1B. I expect a lot of growth from this D-Backs team this season, and expect them to fair decently.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Record: 74-88
Synopsis: I'm afraid the Dodgers are a team headed the wrong direction, and it starts at the top with their management that's in a petty family feud that I won't get further into. For being a big market with big money, the Dodgers don't have much to show for it. They're starting journeyman players at 3 positions, and currently only have a 4 man rotation due to early injuries. Those 4 are really solid though. What could keep the Dodgers competing is if they can keep their core pitching healthy (especially Hiroki Kuroda who's been banged up). This year is a big one for Clayton Kershaw, can he truly establish himself as an ace? Jonathon Broxton, Hong-Chi Kuo, and Matt Guerrier make for a good back end of a bullpen. I'm just afraid outside of RF Andre Ethier, the Dodgers just don't have the bats or depth to compete.
5. San Diego Padres
Projected Record: 65-97
Synopsis: What a difference a winter makes. The Padres have gone from leading the NL West, to losing it by 1 game, to trading their star 1B, too looking like a cellar dweller. There's simply not enough talent on this team to compete. 2B Orlando Hudson was the big signing of the offseason, hardly enough to replace 1B Adrian Gonzalez. If nothing else, the bullpen is still Class A+ with Heath Bell at the back. I just don't think the other pieces are in place for them to win games. Maybe if 1B Brad Hawpe can revive his career, or CF Cameron Maybin can finally find his stride at the major league level the Padres will have something to feel good about. Now though, I'm afraid they don't.
NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
Projected Record: 90-72
Synopsis: The talented Brewers could be the beneficiaries of a division prime for the taking. If 2B Rickie Weeks is on, and RF Corey Hart is healthy, the Brewers may have the toughest 1-5 lineup in the game. They're also a deep team with a lot of talented role players and guys who know how to win. Add to that the fact they added SP Zack Greinke in the offseason to go with former ace Yovani Gallardo and they have a really well rounded team once Greinke gets off the DL. A major question is if John Axford can lock things down in the 9th for the Brewers, if not, Takashi Saito could probably take the reigns as closer and be successful. I think the Brewers have all the bases covered, health permitting, this is a very capable team.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Projected Record: 88-74
Synopsis: The Reds were last year's surprise NL Central winners, I think they fall just short this season. They do have a lot of young talent. CF Drew Stubbs is a potential 25-25 guy for a long time and they have the reigning NL MVP in 1B Joey Votto, who at 27, still has his prime ahead. The Reds just aren't entirely the complete team the Brewers are, they are depending a little too much on the fickle quality of youthful exuberance. Case and point is the starting rotation. There's no doubt they have a lot of talent on that rotation, but its young, inconsistent, and unproven. They need quality, healthy seasons from Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto, and those have yet to really come. The Reds will be in a pennant race, but I think they fall short.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Projected Record: 82-80
Synopsis: The Cardinals have fallen fast. They lost the division last season and took a major step back when they lost perennial Cy Young candidate, Adam Wainwright for the season. SP Chris Carpenter has been banged up too. How long can Jake Westbrook hold up? Was Jaime Garcia fools gold last season? The rotations got questions. Outside of the best player in the game in 1B Albert Pujols, LF Matt Holliday, and a budding talent in CF Colby Rasmus, the Cards don't have much of a lineup either. 3B Dave Freese could be an interesting player, but depending on Lance Berkman in RF is probably asking too much. The Cardinals are a good team, but not good enough.
4. Chicago Cubs
Projected Record: 75-87
Synopsis: The Cubs are another disappointing big market NL team. They've burned lots of money in bad places. SP Carlos Zambrano has been a major disappointment. Carlos Silva was an $11 million a year mistake that they've cut. They gave a lot of money this offseason to 1B Carlos Pena, who didn't even hit .200 last season. LF Alfonso Soriano was another mistake as he's come off as uninspired and unmotivated in Chicago. SP Matt Garza was a nice add, and I think Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, and Sean Marshall can sure up the bullpen. SS Starlin Castro is a raw talent who I don't think is ready. The Cubs only have pieces, and not enough of them to really be a factor.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected Record: 72-90
Synopsis: The Pirates aren't ready yet, but they do have some very good young talent that could make them a problem for teams in the future. CF Andrew McCuthen is already a star. LF Jose Tabata, 3B Pedro Alvarez and 2B Neil Walker fill out the core. Those guys have a lot of talent, with more coming in the farm system. I don't think they have the pitching though. SP Kevin Correia was a good add this offseason, but not near enough to contend. If SP Charlie Morton can sort himself out, and Joel Hanrahan can step in as the closer, those components would be very encouraging. Pieces are in place, but the Pirates need a lot more pitching, and time to mature. If they get those elements, look out!
6. Houston Astros
Projected Record: 69-93
Synopsis: Some people feel decently about the Astros, I'm not one of them. Outside of the starting rotation, and RF Hunter Pence, I don't see much to get excited about. There's hardly any punch in the lineup outside of Pence. With LF Carlos Lee having major struggles last season, he could be on his last leg. They do have some interesting talents at SS and 1B in Angel Sanchez and Brett Wallace respectively, but they aren't near ready. Their hitting is more than likely an exercise in futility. The rotation can only keep them in so many games (I do want to see JA Happ for a full season though). Not much here to be excited for.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Record: 101-61
Synopsis: Here they are, the darlings of MLB prognosticators, and yes, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on the Phillies. Point blank, Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels, and Blanton are a obscenely dominant starting 5. Yes, Chase Utley is hurt, and Jayson Werth is gone, but with that pitching, and stalwarts in 1B Ryan Howard, CF Shane Victorino, and a fresh SS Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies will still score runs. It'll be interesting to see which Raul Ibanez shows up this year. 3B Placido Polanco and C Carlos Ruiz are 2 very underrated players too that could help pick up the offensive slack this season. The bullpen is deep and solid too, even with Brad Lidge hurt, they're seasoned at coping without him by now anyway. I love the Phillies, they easily have a chance to win every night, and that's hard to accomplish.
2. Atlanta Braves
Projected Record: 87-75
Synopsis: The Braves are interesting. They got a mix of young talent and veterans. This could be a swing team in the sense that their question marks will dictate their season. A healthy and effective Chipper Jones would be a major step, an effective season out of LF Martin Prado, a bounce back season from CF Nate McLouth and a solid rookie campaign from 1B Freddie Freeman could put them in serious contention, I don't see all the parts working out though. The definite is that the Braves will pitch well, at least in the rotation. The bullpen still needs to sort itself out between Craig Kimbell and Jonny Venters. I will say this, I really like this team more if the Phillies don't exist, but since they do and the Braves play them 19 times, the Braves will feel the adverse effects.
3. Florida Marlins
Projected Record: 81-81
Synopsis: There's A LOT of young talent on this Marlins team, I don't even know where to begin. Simply put, every postion essentially has a young talented guy that could really step in and shine, I doubt they all will though, and really, they still have lumps to take as individuals and as a team. With that said, I do believe the the Marlins take major strides this season and could really be poised to compete in a year or 2. To put names to the youth movement, look no further than the outfield, with Logan Morrison, Chris Coghlan, and Mike Stanton from left to right. Maybe the Marlins have one of those unexpected Marlins championship runs one of these seasons? It could be on the horizon.
4. Washington Nationals
Projected Record: 71-91
Synopsis: This is the season the Nationals get out of the cellar. They have a solid heart of the order with 3B Ryan Zimmerman (a really well kept secret of a player), RF Jayson Werth, and 1B Adam LaRoche. They could really score runs if LaRoche is right. The problem is they need guys to get on at the top of the order too, and without Nyger Morgan, who is going to lead off? I do like SS Ian Desmond but he needs work as a young player. What will hold the Nationals really back is their pitching. They don't have much of it. One of these days, Livan Hernandez is just going to stop being effective, and you never know what you'll get from John Lannan. Everyone else is young and unproven. I do like the Nationals pen though. I just fear that lack of starting pitching and only being able to get solo homers will be the Nationals undoing.
5. New York Mets
Projected Record: 64-98
Synopsis: I feel nothing but struggles this season for the Mets. I've already mentioned their Johan Santana woes in another blog post. The Mets are just counting on too many undependable players. RF Carlos Beltran is hardly healthy, Jason Bay is already hurt with Santana. How long until SS Jose Reyes goes down? Brad Emaus is at 2B? I do hope for good things from young 1B Ike Davis. SP Mike Pelfrey could be a nice starter. I don't see much in the bullpen behind K-Rod, who could be unstable anyway. I just don't see it for the Mets, there's just way too much that could go wrong, and a lot of it already has. I'm afraid the Mets have to start with just damage control as it is.
What's the baseline?
NL West Champs: San Fransisco Giants
NL Central Champs: Milwaukee Brewers
NL East Champs: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Wildcard: Colorado Rockies
NL West
1. San Fransisco Giants
Projected Record: 92-70
Synopsis: The Giants had the best pitching the baseball both on paper and on the field last season, and the establishment of Madison Bumgarner into the rotation from day 1 this season makes them all that more formidable of a rotation. Offensively, the Giants weren't that substantial last year, but they hit enough and had a knack for the timely hit. A lot of their success this year may fall on those timely hits again. The lineup should get stronger with C Buster Posey now having major league experience. It should be interesting to see if rookie 1B Brandon Belt can add a spark to the lineup and if not if OF Cody Ross can keep last year's postseason mojo flowing into the new season when he comes off the DL. This is an all-around good pitching team, including the bullpen, and the offense is improving, and adequate. Giants dominance could be becoming a trend in the NL West with that staff.
2. Colorado Rockies
Projected Record: 90-72
Synopsis: The Rockies are a young, and very talented team that just missed the playoffs last season after an uninspired first half. They grew a lot and I think are really poised to make some noise this season. SS Troy Tulowitzki and LF Carlos Gonzalez are potential MVP candidates not just this season but for years to come. They comprise the core of the team with SP Ubaldo Jimenez. The question is, do the Rockies have enough talent around these stars to really sustain themselves. I think they do. CF Dexter Fowler has a bright future and SP Jorge de la Rosa has quietly become a very solid pitcher. Closer Huston Street seems to be back. He threw well this spring. This team is a definite wildcard in more ways than one.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected Record: 77-85
Synopsis: I think this team is a lot closer to success than most people do. The Diamondbacks have some serious talent. The bullpen is strong with JJ Putz as the anchor and they have a lot of young, live arms in their rotation ready to grow, with Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson leading the way. RF Justin Upton is an incredible talent and sky's the limit for him as a 5 tool player. The corner infield positions are definitely an achilles' heal for this team, with Melvin Mora at 3B and Juan Miranda at 1B. I expect a lot of growth from this D-Backs team this season, and expect them to fair decently.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Record: 74-88
Synopsis: I'm afraid the Dodgers are a team headed the wrong direction, and it starts at the top with their management that's in a petty family feud that I won't get further into. For being a big market with big money, the Dodgers don't have much to show for it. They're starting journeyman players at 3 positions, and currently only have a 4 man rotation due to early injuries. Those 4 are really solid though. What could keep the Dodgers competing is if they can keep their core pitching healthy (especially Hiroki Kuroda who's been banged up). This year is a big one for Clayton Kershaw, can he truly establish himself as an ace? Jonathon Broxton, Hong-Chi Kuo, and Matt Guerrier make for a good back end of a bullpen. I'm just afraid outside of RF Andre Ethier, the Dodgers just don't have the bats or depth to compete.
5. San Diego Padres
Projected Record: 65-97
Synopsis: What a difference a winter makes. The Padres have gone from leading the NL West, to losing it by 1 game, to trading their star 1B, too looking like a cellar dweller. There's simply not enough talent on this team to compete. 2B Orlando Hudson was the big signing of the offseason, hardly enough to replace 1B Adrian Gonzalez. If nothing else, the bullpen is still Class A+ with Heath Bell at the back. I just don't think the other pieces are in place for them to win games. Maybe if 1B Brad Hawpe can revive his career, or CF Cameron Maybin can finally find his stride at the major league level the Padres will have something to feel good about. Now though, I'm afraid they don't.
NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
Projected Record: 90-72
Synopsis: The talented Brewers could be the beneficiaries of a division prime for the taking. If 2B Rickie Weeks is on, and RF Corey Hart is healthy, the Brewers may have the toughest 1-5 lineup in the game. They're also a deep team with a lot of talented role players and guys who know how to win. Add to that the fact they added SP Zack Greinke in the offseason to go with former ace Yovani Gallardo and they have a really well rounded team once Greinke gets off the DL. A major question is if John Axford can lock things down in the 9th for the Brewers, if not, Takashi Saito could probably take the reigns as closer and be successful. I think the Brewers have all the bases covered, health permitting, this is a very capable team.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Projected Record: 88-74
Synopsis: The Reds were last year's surprise NL Central winners, I think they fall just short this season. They do have a lot of young talent. CF Drew Stubbs is a potential 25-25 guy for a long time and they have the reigning NL MVP in 1B Joey Votto, who at 27, still has his prime ahead. The Reds just aren't entirely the complete team the Brewers are, they are depending a little too much on the fickle quality of youthful exuberance. Case and point is the starting rotation. There's no doubt they have a lot of talent on that rotation, but its young, inconsistent, and unproven. They need quality, healthy seasons from Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto, and those have yet to really come. The Reds will be in a pennant race, but I think they fall short.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Projected Record: 82-80
Synopsis: The Cardinals have fallen fast. They lost the division last season and took a major step back when they lost perennial Cy Young candidate, Adam Wainwright for the season. SP Chris Carpenter has been banged up too. How long can Jake Westbrook hold up? Was Jaime Garcia fools gold last season? The rotations got questions. Outside of the best player in the game in 1B Albert Pujols, LF Matt Holliday, and a budding talent in CF Colby Rasmus, the Cards don't have much of a lineup either. 3B Dave Freese could be an interesting player, but depending on Lance Berkman in RF is probably asking too much. The Cardinals are a good team, but not good enough.
4. Chicago Cubs
Projected Record: 75-87
Synopsis: The Cubs are another disappointing big market NL team. They've burned lots of money in bad places. SP Carlos Zambrano has been a major disappointment. Carlos Silva was an $11 million a year mistake that they've cut. They gave a lot of money this offseason to 1B Carlos Pena, who didn't even hit .200 last season. LF Alfonso Soriano was another mistake as he's come off as uninspired and unmotivated in Chicago. SP Matt Garza was a nice add, and I think Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, and Sean Marshall can sure up the bullpen. SS Starlin Castro is a raw talent who I don't think is ready. The Cubs only have pieces, and not enough of them to really be a factor.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected Record: 72-90
Synopsis: The Pirates aren't ready yet, but they do have some very good young talent that could make them a problem for teams in the future. CF Andrew McCuthen is already a star. LF Jose Tabata, 3B Pedro Alvarez and 2B Neil Walker fill out the core. Those guys have a lot of talent, with more coming in the farm system. I don't think they have the pitching though. SP Kevin Correia was a good add this offseason, but not near enough to contend. If SP Charlie Morton can sort himself out, and Joel Hanrahan can step in as the closer, those components would be very encouraging. Pieces are in place, but the Pirates need a lot more pitching, and time to mature. If they get those elements, look out!
6. Houston Astros
Projected Record: 69-93
Synopsis: Some people feel decently about the Astros, I'm not one of them. Outside of the starting rotation, and RF Hunter Pence, I don't see much to get excited about. There's hardly any punch in the lineup outside of Pence. With LF Carlos Lee having major struggles last season, he could be on his last leg. They do have some interesting talents at SS and 1B in Angel Sanchez and Brett Wallace respectively, but they aren't near ready. Their hitting is more than likely an exercise in futility. The rotation can only keep them in so many games (I do want to see JA Happ for a full season though). Not much here to be excited for.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Record: 101-61
Synopsis: Here they are, the darlings of MLB prognosticators, and yes, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on the Phillies. Point blank, Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels, and Blanton are a obscenely dominant starting 5. Yes, Chase Utley is hurt, and Jayson Werth is gone, but with that pitching, and stalwarts in 1B Ryan Howard, CF Shane Victorino, and a fresh SS Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies will still score runs. It'll be interesting to see which Raul Ibanez shows up this year. 3B Placido Polanco and C Carlos Ruiz are 2 very underrated players too that could help pick up the offensive slack this season. The bullpen is deep and solid too, even with Brad Lidge hurt, they're seasoned at coping without him by now anyway. I love the Phillies, they easily have a chance to win every night, and that's hard to accomplish.
2. Atlanta Braves
Projected Record: 87-75
Synopsis: The Braves are interesting. They got a mix of young talent and veterans. This could be a swing team in the sense that their question marks will dictate their season. A healthy and effective Chipper Jones would be a major step, an effective season out of LF Martin Prado, a bounce back season from CF Nate McLouth and a solid rookie campaign from 1B Freddie Freeman could put them in serious contention, I don't see all the parts working out though. The definite is that the Braves will pitch well, at least in the rotation. The bullpen still needs to sort itself out between Craig Kimbell and Jonny Venters. I will say this, I really like this team more if the Phillies don't exist, but since they do and the Braves play them 19 times, the Braves will feel the adverse effects.
3. Florida Marlins
Projected Record: 81-81
Synopsis: There's A LOT of young talent on this Marlins team, I don't even know where to begin. Simply put, every postion essentially has a young talented guy that could really step in and shine, I doubt they all will though, and really, they still have lumps to take as individuals and as a team. With that said, I do believe the the Marlins take major strides this season and could really be poised to compete in a year or 2. To put names to the youth movement, look no further than the outfield, with Logan Morrison, Chris Coghlan, and Mike Stanton from left to right. Maybe the Marlins have one of those unexpected Marlins championship runs one of these seasons? It could be on the horizon.
4. Washington Nationals
Projected Record: 71-91
Synopsis: This is the season the Nationals get out of the cellar. They have a solid heart of the order with 3B Ryan Zimmerman (a really well kept secret of a player), RF Jayson Werth, and 1B Adam LaRoche. They could really score runs if LaRoche is right. The problem is they need guys to get on at the top of the order too, and without Nyger Morgan, who is going to lead off? I do like SS Ian Desmond but he needs work as a young player. What will hold the Nationals really back is their pitching. They don't have much of it. One of these days, Livan Hernandez is just going to stop being effective, and you never know what you'll get from John Lannan. Everyone else is young and unproven. I do like the Nationals pen though. I just fear that lack of starting pitching and only being able to get solo homers will be the Nationals undoing.
5. New York Mets
Projected Record: 64-98
Synopsis: I feel nothing but struggles this season for the Mets. I've already mentioned their Johan Santana woes in another blog post. The Mets are just counting on too many undependable players. RF Carlos Beltran is hardly healthy, Jason Bay is already hurt with Santana. How long until SS Jose Reyes goes down? Brad Emaus is at 2B? I do hope for good things from young 1B Ike Davis. SP Mike Pelfrey could be a nice starter. I don't see much in the bullpen behind K-Rod, who could be unstable anyway. I just don't see it for the Mets, there's just way too much that could go wrong, and a lot of it already has. I'm afraid the Mets have to start with just damage control as it is.
What's the baseline?
NL West Champs: San Fransisco Giants
NL Central Champs: Milwaukee Brewers
NL East Champs: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Wildcard: Colorado Rockies
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