I have to say, it actually went by fairly fast. The NBA regular season ended this past Thursday and the playoffs actually began earlier today and are currently going on. We definitely saw a regular season of power shifting in the NBA. There are new teams at the top vying for the most illustrious title in basketball, the NBA Finals trophy. Today, I will take a look at the NBA playoffs and how I expect them to shape out. I go through every series, who will win, a brief description of the teams against each other, and how long the series will go. We will start with the Eastern Conference first round.
First Round
#8 Pacers vs. #1 Bulls
In some ways, the Pacers are giant killers. They've played up to their competition during the regular season several times. They don't have nearly the talent to really pursue a chance against the Bulls. Too much firepower.
Bulls win in 5.
#7 76ers vs. #2 Heat
The 76ers are a team on the rise. They got a lot of young talent, with a strong backcourt. They could use more size up front though. Once again, the Heat just has too much talent, but I question their heart, and their urgency in an early round series. The Heat will win, but they're probably let the 76ers stick around much longer than they should.
Heat win in 6.
#6 Knicks vs. #3 Celtics
The Knicks just aren't ready yet. They have a lot of talent and 2 stars in Amare Stoudamire and Carmelo Anthony, but they haven't gelled yet. They're playing a veteran, well-tested Celtics team that comes to play every night from April on. The Knicks will fight, and this series could be a foreshadowing of a changing of the guard in the East, but I like the Celtics this time.
Celtics win in 6.
#5 Hawks vs. #4 Magic
The Hawks are a shame. They have tons of quality individual players but have just never been able to put it together. That said, I think they will score well against the defensively-weak Magic. The problem is the Hawks don't have an answer for Dwight Howard on the block, even with all-star Al Horford. The Magic can score with the Hawks and have a better planned team, and a better coach. But this should be a good series.
Magic win in 7 (I've been going back and forth between 6 and 7 since I decided to write this post)
#8 Grizzlies vs. #1 Spurs
The Grizzlies showed a lot of heart in establishing themselves ahead of the pack for the 8 seed. Furthermore, this Grizzlies team has a young, quality starting 5. They don't have any depth though. On the other side, this is old hat for the Spurs. Even with their struggles lately the Spurs are too self-confident and play too well. The upstart Griz could really give a run, especially with the Spurs struggles, but I really don't expect it.
Spurs win in 5.
#7 Hornets vs #2 Lakers
I wouldn't be surprised if Chris Paul's back hurts from carrying the Hornets all season. I expect him to give the Lakers his all, but the Hornets are really outmatched. It would take some Herculean performances from Paul and a complete meltdown of Kobe Bryant to keep the Lakers from winning this series. I really doubt that. I'll give the Hornets one win at home, but I think that's even suspect.
Lakers win in 5.
#6 Blazers vs. #3 Mavericks
This is a trap series. The Blazers are misleading because they had a really hard time staying healthy all season. Brandon Roy is definitely not 100% (and probably never will be again), but they have lots of quality players, and I think they are about to peak. Adding Gerald Wallace was genius too. If I were coaching the Blazers, I'd consider sticking him on Dirk Nowitzki. I don't know if that's a novel idea or obvious... Anyway, on the other hand Dallas's seeding and record is inflated by a hot start. They really haven't played that well down the stretch. They really concern me.
Blazers win in 6.
#5 Nuggets vs. #4 Thunder
Speaking of down the stretch, the Nuggets have been red hot. I really expect them to give the Thunder a run. But the Thunder have been playing quality basketball too, especially since grabbing Kendrick Perkins from the Celtics. Kevin Durant is a competitor, he'll take the spirit that the Nuggets will come with and respond. Look out world, I expect Kevin Durant to really take the next step in these playoffs, and it starts in this series.
Thunder win in 7.
2nd Round
#4 Magic vs. #1 Bulls
The Magic would be rolling along if they didn't have to face a defensively minded team, but they do. The Bulls are hard on the defensive end, furthermore they have Joakim Noah, who will stand up to Dwight Howard and slow him down. If not, Carlos Boozer could step in too. The Bulls' size gives them the ticket to the series, that and the fact the Magic's lack of defensive means having no answer to Derrick Rose wreaking havoc both scoring and dishing.
Bulls win in 6.
#3 Celtics vs. #2 Heat
The Celtics are aging, they lack the strength and height they once had with Kendrick Perkins, but they won't go quietly into the night. I don't think the Heat have any answer for Rajon Rondo, who's made a job of ruining things in the playoffs for LeBron James in recent history. I really think the Celtics will just want it more. They know what's up, this may be their last chance. The Heat are still young, they'd rather flex and look pretty. They think they have plenty of time yet. Talent can only take you so far. Especially in the playoffs where defense is so key, you need heart.
Celtics win in 7.
#4 Thunder vs. #1 Spurs
Remember when I said it was time for Kevin Durant to take the next step? This is it. The Spurs are ripe for the picking against a young, up-start Thunder team with a lot of quiet confidence. Maybe if the Spurs we're a couple years younger, or at least securely healthy, its their series, but they're not. The Thunder's got a lot of talent with it being led by Durant and Russell Westbrook, they've also added role players. This series is an illustration of the power shift in the NBA. Assume the position, Kevin Durant.
Thunder win in 6.
#6 Blazers vs. #2 Lakers
Like I said, the Blazers have a lot of unnoticed talent, and could really make noise, but the Lakers are too veteran, too secure in themselves and too driven. I think Nicolas Batum could be a big factor in this series though for the Blazers. If he can get off and either force the Lakers to take attention off Roy or let him Batum score then the Blazers' chances get a lot better. I'm just afraid the Lakers' experience factor puts them over the top.
Lakers win in 7.
Conference Finals
#3 Celtics vs. #1 Bulls
The Bulls have finally met their match. Look for lots of really good point guard play in this matchup with Rose and Rondo, but I think its the Bulls size and the Celtics' lack of size that will really tell the tale. Perhaps Chicago's lack of experience in the playoffs will be a disservice to them, but I doubt it. That's a quality all-around basketball team with talent at all positions. Also, the Celtics age and wear and tear is about to catch up with them. I'll take the younger, fresher legs.
Bulls win in 6.
#4 Thunder vs. #2 Lakers
This could be the exchange of power in the West with Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant, but I don't think it is this year. That's more due to the supporting casts though. I think the players around Kobe are just better than those around Durant right now. I will say, Kendrick Perkins has given the Lakers fits as a Celtic, but with a healthy Andrew Bynum and the versatility of Lamar Odom then properly utilized, I like the Lakers.
Lakers win in 7.
NBA Finals
#2 Lakers vs. #1 Bulls
The move to grab Carlos Boozer in the offseason pays great dividends for the Bulls in the end. This should be a fantastic matchup of teams. Both teams have size and swing players that can score. I feel like with the quality of stars on both teams, the games may really come down to role players. Whose bench and role players can step up will be a huge deciding factor. The Lakers have taken a step back in their bench from previous seasons, and the Bulls have some talented veterans to replace starters. Ultimately I think the firepower of guys like Kyle Korver and Luol Deng will be too much. The Lakers will finally fall short, but I'd still expect great performances from every star involved in this series.
Bulls win in 7.
Finals MVP: Carlos Boozer, PF, Chicago Bulls
What's the baseline?
Expect the Blazers to make noise and the Thunder to really challenge for the Western Conference. Ultimately, the Bulls beat the Lakers in the Finals behind a full repertoire of players. The Finals MVP will be Carlos Boozer in the end. Bulls beat the Lakers in a thriller of a 7 game series.
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