The Cleveland Browns and the No. 6 Pick

The Browns have a number of needs in this year's NFL Draft. The biggest question is what they will do with the 6th overall pick. There are several options as they purged their roster of five defensive players today. The biggest departure, literally and figuratively, was DT Shawn Rogers. This move opens up the Browns' options at 6 even more.

Team needs include WR, DT, DE, CB, FS, RG, and RT. There should be some good options at nearly all of these positions available at the sixth pick. So which should it be? Which will it be?

To begin, I will look to the NFL drafts since the Browns came back into the league in 1999, in order to draw conclusions on the successes of draft certain positions particularly high. I will use three grades for the players taken in the first rounds since 1999. These three ratings are BUST, AVERAGE, and POTENTIAL HOF. The biggest NEED on this team is WR. I say that because the team was what they assume is the QB of the future in Colt McCoy. However, it will not be possible to make this determination without giving him the weapons to succeed. WR A.J. Green from Georgia might be there at No. 6, but a number of experts have the Bengals taking Green in order to keep Carson Palmer happy at no. 4. If Green is still on the board, I make the case that the browns should stray from selecting the UGA standout.

Since 1999, 45 WRs  have been draft in the first round. Of these players 18 are what I would consider BUSTS. This is not including players like Darrius Heyward-Bey, of whom the jury is still out. That is an astonishing 40%. Furthermore, if you examine the players taken in the top ten, as this pick will be, the percentage jumps to 69%. Of those 17 players taken in the top ten, 7 are players that I consider having marginal to phenomenal NFL careers. The other ten are among the 18 that I considered BUSTS earlier. WR is clearly a difficult position to judge transitioning to the pro level. If the Browns decide that WR is their biggest need for 2011 draft, it might behoove them to trade down, collect some extra picks, and acquire Alabama's Julio Jones.

To be fair, the same stipulations should apply for all other positions considered by the Browns in this draft. The Browns have a lot of bad experience in draft defensive lineman high. They were burned in back to back drafts by no.1 and no.3 overall selections, Courtney Brown and Gerrard Warren, respectively. Other stand out early busts are Jamal Reynolds (no.10 in 2001), Ryan Sims (no. 9 in 2002),and  DeWayne Robertson (no. 4 in 2003). These positions seem less dependable than WR.

My Best case scenario for the Browns in this draft involves one of two outcomes. First, somehow, someway Patrick Peterson, CB LSU, falls to no. 6. He appears to be the "sure-fire", "pro-ready" pick in this year's draft. He's been good for a couple of years in college and was flat out the best player in the best conference this season. He could aid Josh Cribbs in the return game, and would supply the Browns with two "lock-down" corners for the first time since Hanford Dixon and Frank Minnifield. All the Browns did with those guys was three straight playoff appearances and 2 straight AFC championship games.

The other option would be to trade down. Move into a place that will cost you less money (still unsure if rookie pay scale will be in effect), and will hopefully have more appropriately slotted offensive lineman, or WR. This may be difficult if a CBA is not in effect because players will not be able to be included in trades. However, every coach and general manager will have the pick/points cheat sheet handy.

What's the Baseline?
It's impossible to predict what positions will be the most dependable in these drafts. It is apparent that certain positions have been a little less dependable. As long as the Browns stray from Alabama DE Marcel Dareus I think they'll have the best chance of not busting at Number 6.