Well, its almost here. We are about 3 and a half hours from the kickoff of the biggest game in the NFL season, potentially the most viewed American sporting event ever, Super Bowl XLV. After 2 weeks of talking and more talking and speculating and more speculating, of ESPN hashing and rehashing the same 4 storylines over and over (just changing the talking heads in the process), the game can finally be played. Honestly, I've had enough of this over obnoxious fanfare, I'm just ready for the game. So, this is the one and only time I will make pregame statements or assertions about the contest. This is it, this is how I think its going to go down.
The Steelers will win. If I have to put a score on it, I'll say it will be 28-17. Granted, my last and only other prediction on this blog fell short , but I feel confident that I have this one right. And I will explain why.
Just looking on the whole of things, I'm kind of puzzled as to why so many people are favoring the Packers. The fact that Vegas has the scoring line favoring Green Bay is not much less than astonishing to me. Mind you, Green Bay was a 6th seed team, that won 10 games to Pittsburgh's 12. They also play in the weaker conference, making that 6th seed appear more futile. This is also the same Green Bay team that's had trouble protecting Aaron Rodgers throughout the season, and in an even more pronounced fashion in the playoffs. They also relied on a gimmicky running game and the fresh legs of a practically unknown James Starks. The Steelers defense is coming off 2 weeks rest, is fresh, and is an incredibly formidable run defense, They are just as strong with their pass rush too. Essentially, Aaron Rodgers is going to have his hands full on offense. I expect the Steelers to negate the Packers' running game and be in Green Bay's backfield on 3rd and long quite a bit. Green Bay will be depending on Aaron Rodgers, who's never played in a game of this magnitude before. Rodgers won the Insight Bowl as a sophomore at Cal, and won the NFC Title Game to get to the Super Bowl, those are his two biggest football victories ever. The Insight Bowl is obviously just some nameless bowl game, and to be perfectly honest Rodgers didn't play that well, particularly in the 2nd half against the Bears in the NFC Title Game. What's to say he won't struggle against an even better defense in an even bigger game?
On the other hand, you have Ben Roethlisberger, who even when the play breaks down, still has a good chance of making a positive gain out of it with his big body and resourcefulness. The Steelers have an all-around attack with a steady ground game, Roethlisberger passing to a litany of solid receivers, and a competent offensive line. I don't expect the loss of Maurkice Pouncey to be that great. Offensive line breakdowns don't effect Roethlisberger like they do Rodgers, and that goes without mentioning this is a Pittsburgh team. The Steelers always have an identity of being tough in the trenches and having depth at the less flashy positions like offensive line. I expect Doug Legursky to pick up the slack at center. To be clear, I think Green Bay's offense is suspect, while Pittsburgh's is seasoned, resourceful and consistent at all positions.
I've also already alluded to Pittsburgh's pass rush and run stopping abilities on defense. Arguably, we are talking about the 2 best defenses in the league this season in Green Bay and Pittsburgh playing in this game, but when both are playing at their highest capacity, I have to say Pittsburgh has the greater unit, even though I think Green Bay has had the better season. I don't think I need to even mention that Green Bay needs to be aware of Troy Polamalu. The one thing I will say in Green Bay's favor is that they have resilient, strong and more than capable WRs. The physical and crafty play of Pittsburgh's DBs shouldn't hamper them too badly, I just fear the ball delivery is going to be disrupted in the backfield all too often. On the other hand, Green Bay has an all-around great defense, if anything they are weak on the defensive line, and consequently a lot of pressure will be on Green Bay's LBs to stop the run and rush the pass. That pressure is not only on established players AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews, but also on Erik Walden and Desmond Bishop. Bishop is in his 1st year as a starter and Walden has started a grand total of 5 career games. They both play on the left side with lineman Cullen Jenkins, I'd look for Pittsburgh to try to exploit the inexperience and pass rushing pursuit of Jenkins by running Rashard Mendenhall on that left side early and often. The most interesting battle should be Pittsburgh's pass catchers vs. a very formidable defensive backfield for Green Bay, that should be a very interesting and tough to call matchup.
What's the baseline?
In the end, Pittsburgh is just too strong, too experienced, too resourceful, and too much more battled tested than Green Bay. I don't expect the Packers to fall on their face, its going to be a hard fought game, but Pittsburgh is the better team, and I expect them to play as such. Steelers win, 28-17.
(photo courtesy of www.glogster.com)
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