Well, this is just about to be one of my favorite times of year. Honestly, late March into early April is a great time for sports. The NCAA tournament is going on, the NBA season is dwindling down in preparation for the playoffs, and anticipation is at its peak for the beginning of the Major League Baseball season culminating in Opening Day. With ESPN airing the first game of the season this Thursday, I felt it more than appropriate to share my MLB Preview. We will be looking at the teams themselves and where they will land in their divisions for the season, followed by a playoff prognostication as well and pre-season awards. Right now, we are looking at the American League, with more of the preview to come in the near future. In advance, this is more than likely to be a long post, but it also should be worth it to sit and read. As they say on those dumb Miller Lite commercials... "Here we go"...
AL West
1. Texas Rangers
Projected Record: 93-69
Synopsis: The Rangers emerged as the toast of the AL West last year behind a solid all-around pitching staff and hardly duplicated offensive firepower. This year they are one more year experienced and veteran. Yes, Cliff Lee is gone, but really, he didn't even pitch that well in the regular season for the Rangers in the 2nd half. Health is more than likely the true key for the Rangers. Keeping key players like Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler healthy will take them a long way. Expect great things from a young improving pitching staff ultimately under the tutelage of Nolan Ryan.
2. Oakland Athletics
Projected Record: 87-75
Synopsis: Little known fact: Oakland had the best ERA as a team in the American League last year. They were arguably a couple of hitters away from seriously contending with the Rangers. Adding Josh Willingham, David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui is a step in the right direction for the As. I think they make the Rangers think twice about the division and make a strong run for the wildcard. The young guys just need to learn how to win in a pennant race. The next step might be a division title.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Projected Record: 78-84
Synopsis: The Angels clearly took a step backwards last season. They looked old and inconsistent. Adding a continually underacheiving Vernon Wells isn't going to fix that. Having Kendrys Morales back and healthy is a major spark, but I don't think the Angels have the bats to compete with Texas and Oakland 19 times each. They simply have too many question marks, not enough power in their lineup, and two starting pitchers in Dan Haren and Scott Kazmir that are major unknowns. The Angels reign in the AL West is really over.
4. Seattle Mariners
Projected Record: 65-97
Synopsis: Hiring Eric Wedge to be the Mariners' manager is not going to change the fact the Mariners severely lack talent at the major league level. Outside of Ichiro and Felix Hernandez everyone has a major defect. There are positives, 1B Justin Smoak has a lot of potential, 2B Jack Wilson is a wizard with the glove, 3B Chone Figgins is fast, SP Erik Bedard may finally be healthy, but the negatives certainly outweigh the positives. Simply not enough talent.
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
Projected Record: 89-73
Synopsis: Same song and dance here. Everyone's all concerned about the Twins and if they can still compete in another season. Guess what? The Twins will be in the thick of at least a playoff race in September like they are every year, its just the way they work and the way Ron Gardenhire manages. One major asset the Twins have is depth. Say 1B Justin Morneau isn't ready for the start of the season. Oh well, Michael Cuddyer moves from RF to first, Jason Kubel plays RF instead of DHing, and Jim Thome and his 589 career homers fill in at DH. There's nothing flashy about the Twins pitching staff, but they do the job, and Joe Nathan is back as potentially the most consistent closer in the game.
2. Chicago White Sox
Projected Record: 85-77
Synopsis: The White Sox added a major player in DH/1B Adam Dunn in the offseason, and with the way the ball flies out of US Cellular Field I think he's poised for a fantastic season. The key to this team is their pitching staff. Mark Buerhle had his first season with an ERA over 4 last year after being in the 3s for 3 straight campaigns, Edwin Jackson needs to be consistent, as does Gavin Floyd, and Jake Peavy's durability is a question. I love all the great arms out of their bullpen though. This team is just too iffy, and the Twins are too automatic.
3. Detroit Tigers
Projected Record: 83-79
Synopsis: I love the Tigers offense. Adding Victor Martinez to hit behind 1B Miguel Cabrera (most probably) may be as good of a move as the Sox adding Dunn, but their questions also lay in their pitching. Justin Verlander should be great, and lots of people are sold on Max Scherzer's stuff, but behind them Rick Porcello took a major step back last year and Brad Penny continues to find ways to not stay in the majors. What really pushes the Sox ahead of the Tigers though is the bullpens. Jose Valverde is good enough but Joaquin Benoit could be a 1 year wonder and behind them is no one established.
4. Cleveland Indians
Projected Record: 78-84
Synopsis: Cleveland's got a lot of talent, but they are too raw. This is probably a moment of truth season for the Indians, they got a lot of young talented prospects coming up through the ranks to the majors and its time to see if they can really cut it. Amongst these players is CF Michael Brantley, 1B Matt LaPorta, C Carlos Santana, and SPs Carlos Carrasco and Justin Masterson. If these guys outperform expectations, the Indians could do really well, otherwise, they don't compete. On the positive side, getting Grady Sizemore back should be a surge and closer Chris Perez really established himself last year.
5. Kansas City Royals
Projected Record: 73-89
Synopsis: I feel like the Royals are about a half step behind the Indians. They too have moment of truth guys in SS Alcides Escobar and 1B Kila Ka'aihue, but they have more roster fillers and guys they're hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with. Losing Zack Greinke is a major deal, that basically means not having an assured opportunity to win one out of every 5 games. Even with that, I think the Royals are going the right direction. 1B/DH Billy Butler and closer Joakim Soria are 2 of the league best kept secrets, but guys like never-status-achieving LF Alex Gordon, 3B Wilson Betemit, and SP Bruce Chen hold the Royals back.
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
Projected Record: 95-67
Synopsis: The Red Sox missed the playoffs last season, but replied by adding stars in LF Carl Crawford and 1B Adrian Gonzalez in the offseason. Lester, Lackey, Bucholz, Beckett, and Matsuzaka is a very formidable starting 5 when healthy, which they finally may be. They also have one of the more deep bullpens in the major leagues. This team is stacked. The questions come from health, particularly the starting rotation and RF JD Drew. But there is also a question at catcher. Can Jarrod Saltalamacchia play at the major league level? I guess we will find out. Either way, the major steps in the offseason pay big dividends for the Red Sox.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Projected Record: 91-71
Synopsis: Lots of people are down on the Rays, and I understand why, they lost a lot of talented players this offseason, but I feel they can be another Twins type team. They are well managed, have a great pipeline of guys from the minors to majors, and have experience to get the job done. They're also a small market team that isn't afraid to stand toe to toe with the Yanks or Sox. There are a lot of questions on this team, but the pitching is still solid even after losing Matt Garza and much of the bullpen. Lots will also ride on the additions of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, if they have anything left in the tank the Rays offense could be a challenge.
3. New York Yankees
Projected Record: 87-75
Synopsis: The Yankees completely failed this offseason in fixing their biggest issue, their starting rotation. Outside of CC Sabathia, the entire staff is questionable. Phil Hughes had more wins that quality starts last season, meaning he was the lucky recepient of a lot of offense.AJ Burnett is a mental case that could be fantastic or tragically bad, Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia essentially made the rotation by default. The Yankees will score... a lot, I like adding C Russell Martin, but I really don't think they can pitch and they will definitely suffer for it.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
Projected Record: 75-87
Synopsis: On the other hand, the Blue Jays have the potential to craft a strong starting rotation in the coming seasons. Ricky Romero is already an unknown but solid ace; Kyle Drabek, the crowning jewel of the Roy Halladay, trade is major league ready. LF Travis Snider and C JP Arencibia are two other prospects that could also provide a spark. 3B Jose Baustita was the best power threat in the game last year. The problem is a lack of experience, and inconsistency at the positions in the middle of the field. The Jays may be a season or two from putting it all together though and really having a chance to compete, they have a great farm system yet to build off of.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Projected Record: 73-89
Synopsis: The Orioles revamped their infield in the offseason, making their lineup much more formidable, but strikeouts and a reliance on the home run will probably be their undoing, along with a poor starting rotation. 3-5 starters Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, and Chris Tillman are a combined 16-23 in their careers and none of them had an ERA below 4.50 last season. Much like the Yankees, I think the Orioles could score quite a bit, but they don't even have Sabathia, although Jeremy Guthrie is a solid pitcher. Things could be positive if 3B Mark Reynolds can not strike out 200 times this season, 1B Derek Lee doesn't get hurt, LF Luke Scott is consistent, and CF Adam Jones reaches his potential, but that's a lot to ask.
What's the baseline?
AL East Champs: Red Sox
AL Central Champs: Twins
AL West Champs: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Rays
more to come...
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