Before I begin, I'd like to send out best wishes to all those effected by the earthquake/tsunami in Japan. You're in our thoughts here at Baseline Sports. Now for the post...
Anyone who follows the New York Mets knows they certainly can only go as far as their ace pitcher Johan Santana, which is why having Santana miss any time this season is a major setback. Not only has the original setback of surgery and recovery been put in place, reports have been going around the baseball world that Santana has faced his own setback in his recovery. I'm no athletic trainer or doctor, but I do know that Santana had a torn anterior capsule in his shoulder. Shoulder injuries are often considered the most crippling to a pitcher. Santana did pitch most of last season with the injury, and pitched phenomenally when all things are considered, before shutting himself down in September as the Mets found their playoff hopes greatly diminished. Santana shortly had surgery thereafter.
On the one hand, there's this report of Santana not progressing with his off-season rehab like he or the Mets would hope. On the other hand is Santana's and the Mets' own words that he is progressing. They say he's feeling stronger every day. The plan was for Santana to be throwing in the minors by May, as of now though, that has yet to be seen. Santana has not thrown to batters in a game this spring and is just working to get stronger.
At this point, there are a couple of questions to ask about Santana. First, will he pitch this season? Personally, I don't think he will. Where there's smoke, there is usually fire. Talks of Santana having a setback probably mean he's at least not where he'd like to be. It would be very easy for the Mets' southpaw to rush himself back, feeling the pressure of an underachieving team and a huge contract. And of course, rushing himself back will more than likely lead to more injury. If Johan were smart, he'd take his time and hope to come back this season at some point, but not require it like he seems to want to let on. That alone is a bad sign for his season.
The other question is what does this all mean for the Mets? Its going to be hard for the Mets to compete in the NL East as it is. The Phillies most likely have the best pitching staff in the world right now. The Braves could be a very formidable team with their own very good pitching staff. The Marlins are going to be competitive, although young and probably a year away from really being a threat. Without Santana, the Mets lose their stopper. They lose the pitcher they can easily go to and ensure a great chance to win that night's ball game. Those type of guys are incredibly valuable, the Yankees can attest to that with CC Sabathia. Also, the Mets had a fairly quiet offseason, offensively I think they are hoping on the health of Carlos Beltran to boost their offense. Beltran is probably just as if not more fragile than Santana. His backup is more than likely Scott Hairston, who hit .210 in 104 games with San Diego last year. Looking at this, I wouldn't expect the Mets to get much better than they're 25th ranking in OBP or 26th in OPS last year, especially with a weighted schedule meaning they will be facing the Phillies and Braves 19 times. The Mets were 7th in ERA and 12th in quality starts last season, but that was with Santana for most of the year and a strange year from RA Dickey (in his defense, he became a knuckleballer) where he had an ERA almost 2 runs lower than his career ERA. I wouldn't expect to get the same performances from either of these pitchers this year. So, namely, without Santana to anchor the staff or an offense that appears to be able to outscore anybody, this very well could be a down year for the Mets.
What's the baseline?
Don't be surprised if Johan Santana's return date is continually moved back or if he re-injures himself trying to come back too fast. Furthermore, don't be surprised if the Mets don't have much of a leg to stand on this season. All that payroll spent and nothing to show for it...
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