In a matter of a few hours we will have the first Game 7 of this year's NBA playoffs as the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder try to settle their score and see who will move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. The series has been hard fought and each team has won on the opponents home floor, so pretty much anything is possible tonight in Game 7. The Grizzlies are an interesting team in that they are an 8 seed. They beat the heavily favored San Antonio Spurs in the first round and have grabbed the bull by the horns against a very formidable and talented Thunder team. That Thunder team has Kevin Durant, who most know as the premiere scorer in the NBA, while doing it without a "me-first" attitude. The series has also included a triple overtime marathon that in my opinion was more than likely the best game of the playoffs so far. Unfortunately, the late 10:30 start of the game hampered most of public from seeing any or all of such a dramatic experience that the game was. They are two compelling teams, playing one game, with the chance to move on and play the Dallas Mavericks for a chance at the NBA Finals. I have come up with a few keys to victory for each team, then I will state who I think will ultimately win this Game 7.
Memphis
1. This is Zach Randolph's time to shine. Coming into the playoffs this season, the NBA public didn't give Randolph much of a second look. Over the last month or so, he's legitimized himself as a potential star as he's been unconscious shooting from the field and been a menace on the block rebounding the basketball. Randolph's averaging 20 pts and 12 reb in the series. He's averaged 28 and 15 in wins and 19 and 11 in the losses (12 and 8 if you take out the stat-padding triple overtime game). Randolph needs to get off and propel he's team forward.
2. They need to do whatever it is they did to Kevin Durant in Game 6 again. Durant only scored 11 points. He shot 21%. A big heaping helping of both Tony Allen and Shane Battier hounding Durant all day is in order I suspect. Memphis has done a great job of ball denial on Durant the whole series, and it needs to really continue as well.
3. Memphis needs to guard the 3 point line. The Grizzlies won Game 6 in large part due to Oklahoma City's cold shooting from the 3 line. The Thunder shot 16% from 3 in the game. Putting hands up on James Harden and Daquaen Cook will be a large part of Memphis stealing this game away. Players like OJ Mayo that are more offensively minded need to come out and have the mentality of running their counterparts off the 3 line. The Thunder will knock the shots down otherwise, I don't expect two incredibly poor shooting nights in a row.
Oklahoma City
1. Speaking of poor shooting nights, clearly the most obvious key is Kevin Durant. They need to get him scoring, and really taking more shots. I hope Coach Scott Brooks has tried to develop new ways to work the ball into Durant's hands, with how poorly point guard Russell Westbrook has played at times in this series, I would even consider having Durant bring the ball up the floor in the half court set, LeBron James style. At the same time, Durant is a guy who really depends on his role players, so he's not alone in being who this game is dependent on for the Thunder.
2. Take out his double-double in Game 1, and Serge Ibaka is averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds in the series. He's lost minutes in the series as its progressed to Nick Collison. Ibaka needs a big game on the offensive end, but especially on the boards and defending Randolph. I've been disappointed with Ibaka, his length and athleticism should pose more of a problem to Randolph than it has, instead Brooks has opted more to Collison when in need of a stopper on Randolph. If Ibaka comes up big, say with 15 points and 10 rebounds and solid defense, he really helps Oklahoma City's chances.
3. Russell Westbrook has to play like a true point guard, and that means he has to make smart decisions. A lot has been made of Westbrook taking more shots in this series than Durant, and to be honest, I think that's unacceptable. Even if Westbrook is shooting more because of the stringent defense on Durant, that doesn't give him free reign to put up all the lousy shots he has. Westbrook is a point guard, he's supposed to distribute the ball, hit the open player. They need to get the ball to Ibaka, Harden, and Cook. They can score the ball, and they're going to get open looks. Westbrook needs to turn off the tunnel vision and get everyone else involved, that is his job.
I think the Thunder will win the game and therefore the series. Memphis won't make it easy, I expect a close game, but Durant is too good of a player to be kept down for much longer. I expect one shooter on the Thunder to get open looks he will knock down as well. I also think the Thunder will play inspired defense on their home floor, leaving Memphis looking for a solution outside of Randolph. I go with the Thunder. My guess at the final score... 104-98.
What's the baseline?
Its been a great series, and it should be a great Game 7. Ultimately I give it to the Oklahoma City Thunder. We will really see in a couple of hours.
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