Blue Jays rightfielder Jose Bautista was a relative unknown just a little more than a year ago. He'd never played a full season without a batting average of better than .252. He'd never hit more than 16 homers either. That was all until last season. Bautista blasted 54 long balls and drove in 124 runs. He played in all but one game and hit .260. This season, he's already hit 19 dingers (actually on pace for about 75), and 32 RBI (on pace for about 125). Further, Bautista's contact swing has also come around and he's finding holes in the opposing team's defense as opposed to just over it. He's hitting .343 through 40 games played.
How is Jose Bautista doing it? Its an incredible change in fate that has made him a surefire MVP candidate and one of the most feared hitters in baseball. There are a few elements really to take into account on this meteoric climb to baseball proficiency, and I would like to wade through them.
For one, Bautista's batting eye has gotten better. One of the biggest aspects of hitting at the major league level, or really any level, is being a disciplined hitter, and that is something that Bautista's really become the last 2 seasons. Bautista's on base percentage last season was .378, and this season it is .492. In both cases its more than 100 points higher than his batting average, which is a strong indicator that he is taking a lot of walks and being smart at the plate. In previous seasons, Bautista's OBP was more like 70 or 80 points more than his average, and keep in mind his had a deflated batting average as well to help him proportionally with walks. However, also feeding into those walk opportunities the last 2 seasons is the fact that Bautista does not have a lot of protection around him in the lineup, meaning he will be walked in favor of facing the other options around him in key situations. However, with Adam Lind hitting .313 and now seeing the majority of the time in the spot in the lineup behind Bautista, that means Bautista will end up facing more pitches, even if Lind is not as vaunted of a power bat. Either way, the lack of options around him would just be reason to give more credit to Bautista for his numbers, while Lind's improved performance at the plate is reason to expect even better things to come.
This goes without mentioning that of Bautista's 49 hits in this young season, 55% of them have gone for extra bases. For comparison, Bautista's extra base hit percentage in 2008 was 36%. It was an incredible 62% in 2010. Which leads to the idea that Bautista is getting into good hitter's counts and then driving the baseball at his opportunities.
One could also postulate that although Bautista has left the ballpark 19 times, he's only gotten 32 RBI. This could be a statement against his team's ability to get on base around him. Really though, this may not be the case, a troubling stat is his lack of clutch hits. Bautista is hitting only .188 with runners in scoring position, while hitting .407 while leading off an inning. 13 of his 19 homers have been solo shots. He also plays on a team that is actually 9th in the league in OBP, so they are indeed on base often.
No major injury really hampered Bautista in his past to state why he would all of a sudden start hitting so well, there was no clearing of injuries to let him freely hit again, and even so, he's been banged up from time to time the past two season anyway, yet still performed so well.
Jose Bautista's growth into one of the strongest power hitters in the Major Leagues is a perplexing one for certain. Some credit must be attributed to hit improved eye at the plate, and more to his ability to put the team on his back with few strong hitters around him. At the same time, his inability to hit with men on is puzzling and recurring (.246 RISP in 2010 as well). If nothing else, Bautista is getting himself into good counts, and then either taking the walk, or driving the baseball, and that's a definite recipe for success.
What's the baseline?
Jose Bautista is an enigma. Its crazy, he kills the baseball, but more so with no one on. He takes advantage of good counts and puts a hurting on the baseball during his chances. Its hard to tell which numbers are real, and which are fool's gold, but I'm sure of one thing. Bautista is a powerful player, and I'd certainly be careful facing him.
(photo courtesy of thegoldensombrero.com)
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