One of my favorite times of year is fast approaching. The MLB trade deadline is coming up fast, in about a week to be more precise and its the time of year where we are about find out who are the buyers and who are the sellers in the baseball world. That is, which teams think they just need that one extra player to put themselves in grand position to reach the playoffs, and ultimately the World Series. Or, on the other hand, we find what teams are packing it in, calling it a year, and planning for the future. It takes more than desire though to score that top flight player on the trade market. It takes assets... prospects for sure, and negotiation. I'm now going to take the time to sort through some of the top players on the trade market and try to map my own way, where they will be ending up. For the sake of full disclosure, most of my rumors information comes from mlbtraderumors.com , which is a fantastic baseball resource that I highly recommend. Lets begin.
Carlos Beltran, OF New York Mets
The biggest issue with Beltran is that he has a full no-trade clause. He can veto any deal he's involved in. With that said, its apparent that Beltran's desire is to stay in the National League, which removes otherwise legitimate suitors Boston and Texas from the mix. The serious teams involved seem to be the Giants, Braves and Phillies. I find the Giants to be a great candidate for Beltran. They aren't a division rival like the Braves and Phillies are and with the extra revenue they've felt from their World Series buzz, they should be able to afford to pay Beltran the rest of the way. If anything holds the Giants back its an inability to give the Mets what they want, ultimately though, I feel those problems will be solved.
Beltran to the Giants
Heath Bell, RP San Diego Padres
The trade talk on Bell has been surprisingly slow with only one major suitor continuing to pop up, the Toronto Blue Jays. Mind you, Toronto's 10.5 out in the AL East and 8.5 out in the Wildcard as of now, and I think their interest is really in a 3 team deal where they can get the benefits of flipping Bell for someone else. Other teams interested in Bell include the Rangers, Cardinals, Angels and Reds. Wherever he goes, I think he's better suited at this point to be the setup man, which is why I really could see Texas where he could set up for Neftali Feliz. There is the chance that Bell doesn't leave, but in that case set up man Mike Adams would be the one on the move instead. I don't see that, the Padres brass have spoken very highly as of late about Adams and they seem more determined to keep him rather than Bell (one is sure to be sent packing). At the same token, it will cost a pretty penny to get him, but I think Bell gets sent away as the Padres stock more players to go with their Adrian Gonzalez haul.
Bell to the Rangers (potential 3 team deal with Blue Jays)
Wandy Rodriguez, SP Houston Astros
The often inconsistent, sometimes ace of a starting pitcher that is Wandy Rodriguez could be a very capable piece to aid a team in need of top to middle of the rotation help down the stretch. From what I've been able to learn, American League teams are wary of NL pitchers right now and how statistical numbers and performance will translate from the weaker hitting NL to the AL. This fear is to the point that most AL teams are not showing much interest in Rodriguez. At the same time, its clear the Astros want to deal Rodriguez and it is certain some team will take a left handed pitcher of his stature. The Reds seem interested, but are in the division. Depending on what Arizona wants to do, I think he would be a great fit there, but I don't know if the young team is serious about making a run this season. Arizona needs the pitching though and while only 4 games out of the NL West, Wandy could fall in their lap due to a lack of demand. I would not be surprised at all to see the magic Wandy in the desert in August.
Rodriguez to the D-Backs
Jeremy Guthrie, SP Baltimore Orioles
At one point, Guthrie seemed untouchable, but with the futility some of Baltimore's young arms have shown this season I think the Orioles organization feels they may need to restock again and to keep one solid arm just isn't enough. Interested teams appear to be the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers. However, Orioles owner Peter Angelos has made it known he will not trade Guthrie within the division, which leaves the Tigers, who fervently need another starter to fill out their rotation. Detroit may very well be Guthrie's landing place.
Guthrie to the Tigers
Brandon League, RP Seattle Mariners
League has been more than solid for the Mariners out of the pen this season and could really aid a bullpen just like Heath Bell. However, he's even better than Bell in that he's under contract through 2012, which means a bigger haul for him in return as well. I look at the losers at getting Bell though as the ones most interested in League, and from that I devise the Cardinals as an opportune candidate that could really use a closer down the stretch. Further I think the Cardinals have the prospects and organization to pull this deal off and fill the void left by a rickety Ryan Franklin. CF Colby Rasmus could very well be a piece sent in return to Seattle to aid a weak hitting outfield. Philadelphia is another, but less likely option. I think League ends up in St. Louis.
League to the Cardinals
Joakim Soria, RP Kansas City Royals
Major league GMs are finding it clear that its going to take a king's ransom to get Joakim Soria. The Royals feel like they are able to compete in 2012 and that Soria is a definite part of that plan. For that reason I don't think he's going anywhere. Further, I don't think there's a major player in that much need of bullpen help with the kind of prospects available that the Royals would require. This is a moot point, although Soria would work wonders for a bullpen, he will stay put.
Soria stays in KC
Hunter Pence, OF Houston Astros
Hunter Pence might be the best kept secret and most overall talented player available at this trade deadline. The question is, how available is he really? The Phillies and Reds have both expressed extreme interest in Pence. Young MLB talent is required for Pence, and that for the Phillies would be Domonic Brown plus at least one other piece. For the Reds, its more of a question mark (Drew Stubbs perhaps?). For that reason, I'd make the Phillies the frontrunner, but I don't think any deal is necessarily a certain thing. Pence has another year on his contract and I could see the 'Stros sitting on it and waiting until the winter to send him away. The price will have to be right for Pence to leave Houston. I find it doubtful Domonic Brown is going anywhere. I think Pence stays put.
Pence stays in Houston.
What's the baseline?
These are my takes... as of now. This is all subject to change as more info passes, and honestly, I'd love to do another post like this before the deadline next Sunday. I just hope I get the chance.
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