Dan Uggla's 33 game hit streak ended this afternoon with an 0 for 3 against the Cubs. Uggla's streak was the longest so far in the 2011 season and the second streak to reach at least 30 games, as the Dodgers' Andre Ethier did exactly 30 earlier this season. Their streaks alone are fairly miraculous, but at the same time mere shadows of the all-time record for the longest hit streak in MLB history.
Its easy to say that when Joe DiMaggio accumulated his 56 game hit streak in 1941 people immediately recognized the incredible feat the DiMaggio had really accomplished. DiMaggio is the only one, before or since his streak to hit in 50 straight games in a row. Willie Keeler had set the record before him in the dead ball era at 45. The closest to DiMaggio before him in the live ball era was George Sisler at 41 in 1922, an entire 15 hits less. Keeler and Pete Rose (44) have come the closest to reaching DiMaggio, but no one has even come within 10 games of his incredible streak.
Which brings us to the present, and the question at hand due to the ending of Dan Uggla's hit streak at 33 games. Is DiMaggio attainable? For reference, the best streak of the 21st century goes to Philadelphia's Jimmy Rollins who hit in 38 straight to end the 2005 and start the 2006 season, the best for a hitter in a single season is held by Rollins's teammate Chase Utley who shares it at 35 with Luis Castillo. No one has come within 15 of DiMaggio in the last 33 years, and no one has ever come within 10. How can it possibly be done? Well, I'm not sure it can. There are pieces to the puzzle of today that would make you think its possible. Video for hitters to study is one point, smaller strikezones in the new era of baseball forcing more pitches to the sweet part of the zone more so than in DiMaggio's day is another. A final change would be how pitching has become diluted at the major league level due to 5 man rotations, specialized bullpens, and having 30 teams instead of the 16 in DiMaggio's day.
At the same rate things are immensely harder. Ballparks are smaller, which you think would be conducive to hitting but is really the opposite. Smaller ballparks mean less ground for an outfielder to cover, cutting off more bloop hits and balls in the gap more easily. Further, with the national media of today baring down anybody that even sniffs a 35 game streak, the pressure of someone trying to reach DiMaggio would be so ridiculous that it would possibly drive the player insane. That alone makes reaching 56 a whole different issue today than it was in '41 (not to say DiMaggio didn't deal with pressure, because he most certainly did).
I will say one thing in the defense of reaching the streak, all it takes is getting hot at the right time, but for a very extended period. Uggla is a prime example. He's hitting .232, not even a high volume of hits, which means for one, he's been lucky, but also that he's gotten hot because he was hitting .170 on June 10th. If Dan Uggla, and all of his lack of consistent contact and lack of a high batting average is able to pull off a 33 game hitting streak, than how is it entirely impossible for a high contact, high BABIP (batting average on balls in play), high speed, power hitter to flirt with 56. As I'm trying to describe, such a player would have to cover all of the bases of baseball's offensive prowess. He'd have to be able to hit over a defense and be good at hitting the ball through a defense. He would have to be good at beating out balls hit right at a defense, or at least putting the pressure on that defense.
Looking at the current span of baseball's hitters, there are hardly any players that fit that bill truthfully. Perhaps Ichiro could if he drove the ball better, but his best years are past him, it would have happened already, and if Matt Kemp can replicate this season 2011 over and over, he could create the perfect storm and make it happen (his BABIP needs to be consistently higher though). Of course, this is all entirely the speculation of just one man, its just my theory and its far from proven. I just think a player of these given assets would have the best ability of reaching DiMaggio. But even with that said, it would still take the perfect storm of opportunity. That's a lot to ask for. Finding someone with all the criteria alone is hard to come by.
What's the baseline?
Dan Uggla's done, it was a nice run. I think you are safe for a long time, Mr. DiMaggio.
(photo courtesy of joedimaggiobiography.com)
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