First things first. I really can't take credit for what I am about to show you, but I can certainly pass it along. The word is passing around the basketball community about Kobe Bryant and how he is supposedly the clutchest NBA player on the planet right now. Well, ESPN blogger Henry Abbott would certainly like to contest any such notion, read Abbott's incredibly strong argument against Bryant here.
What I will do for those not wanting to muddle through such a long blog post is summarize it as best as I can. I warn you though, this is probably going to get kind of lengthy too, but its worth it to be informed.
Kobe Bryant is far from the clutchest player in the NBA, despite the fact that in a poll of NBA General Managers done at the end of each season, the vast majority state that if they had one possession to win, they would want the ball in the hands of the Black Mamba over anyone else. This vehement belief that all these GMs, and really most typical basketball people throughout the world have is not based on facts or figures, merely on reputation and selective memory.
Yes, Bryant has the most shots made in the final 24 seconds of NBA play in a game where his team trails by 2 or less points or is tied (we will call them "clutch shots") in the last 15 years. This is very true. He also has more attempts than anyone else at 115. The next closest is Vince Carter at 96. No one else is within 43 attempts of him.
Abbott also backs his argument by the fact that defenses simply know what is coming when they are in crunch time vs. the Lakers. Kobe is going to shoot the basketball. In the last 5 years, Kobe has shot 56 clutch shots, he has only 1 assist in those 5 years in similar clutch situations. He doesn't pass the ball, even when teammates are open, he's going to shoot. Teams can easily just double or triple team him and stop him, hence his 31.3 shooting % on clutch shots.
The numbers also show that the Lakers lose efficiency in the clutch situations. Over the last 15 years (which are Bryant's career), the Lakers average 1.09 points per possession. That's the best in the NBA. In clutch situations, they average 0.82. That's 12th best. Obviously, Bryant clutching the ball and refusing to pass, taking it all upon himself isn't the recipe for victory, its hampered his team from its usual performance.
Furthermore, the contention is made that the reason Bryant is heralded as the games best closer is because the clutch shots he does make are incredible. There is no doubting that statement. Bryant has made great game winners, but he's also missed over 2 times as many as he has made.
Going along with our memories is the aura that Bryant puts out about himself. He's cool, calm, and collected. He acts like the baddest man on the planet just waiting to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. He's nonchalant and confident, knowing he's going to make that shot. Simply put, he carries himself like he is the best closer in the NBA, even when he isn't. I'm no sociology expert, but I know people tend to respect and appreciate confidence, and Bryant shows it. He convinces us, whether he's trying to or not, that he really is the most clutch player there is. The numbers don't lie though. All of that is just smoke and mirrors.
Now a little of my own opinion to flesh this out...
I will say this in Bryant's defense. If nothing else, he has the most clutch experience, and we do know he CAN make the shots. The question is whether or not he actually will though. Although I don't completely take him out of consideration for being the most clutch player in the NBA, I'm not just going to outright hand him the crown like most would. Its either Kobe or nothing when he's on your team in clutch situations, and his efficiency of scoring doesn't provide the same confidence that his demeanor does.
So if I had to choose one guy to win the NBA Finals for me in one possession who would it be? I'm going with Dirk Nowitzki. The numbers and perceivable attributes all fall in his favor. Nowitzki has the highest clutch shooting % of anyone with at least 60 attempts, at 38.5 %. That goes without mentioning all the clutch international shots he has taken and made in his time overseas (with Team Germany). This means he has a higher rate of efficiency and also has the experience in clutch situations to take and make the shots with confidence. He's also a skilled 6 foot 11 player, able to create his own shot (one of Kobe's best clutch attributes). Plus, even if he doesn't make his own shot, chances are, he'll just shoot over you, considering his height and range.
Honorable mentions also go to Carmelo Anthony, who shoots an incredible 47.7% in clutch situations, but only has 44 attempts and has never played in an NBA Finals. Chris Paul gets interest at 45.2% and with the fact he's one of the best passers in the league, meaning he's willing to dish for the best scoring opportunity in the given situation. He also has never played in the NBA Finals though, and only has 31 clutch shot attempts. The aforementioned Vince Carter is also an interesting choice. The overall point though is, this choice isn't as cut and dry as it seems.
What's the baseline?
Contrary to popular belief Kobe Bryant really isn't the runaway best clutch player in the NBA. He doesn't perform as well as it seems in clutch situations, despite his demeanor, reputation, and memorable shots. He is a less efficient scorer than many others in clutch situations and hardly ever passes, meaning he's leaving the best opportunities to score by the wayside in order to live up to some false facade. He's still a great player with a lot of great historical clutch plays, but Bryant and clutch shouldn't be as synonymous as they seem.
(photo courtesy of onemanfastbreak.net)
What this shows is that teams shouldn't just dump the ball off to their best player at the end of games and that player shouldn't try to command the ball any more than he would during the rest of the game. Every possession should be about trying to score, and the end of the game shouldn't be treated any differently (except for time considerations). I don't know that I would say Kobe is less "clutch", just that the Lakers'/his gameplan probably sets him up for lower percentage shots near the end of the game due to other teams' having a pretty good idea of who's getting the ball.
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